Jon Rahm holds a commanding four-shot lead going into the final round of the Memorial Tournament, making the event a difficult one to approach from a betting perspective.
The Spaniard has -400 odds to hang on for his third individual victory on the PGA Tour. There's no circumstance where backing that number with 18 holes left to play at a tough golf course would be the recommended play.
Before diving too far in, here's a look at the current oddsboard.
| Player | Odds | To Par |
|---|---|---|
| Jon Rahm | -400 | -12 |
| Tony Finau | +500 | -8 |
| Ryan Palmer | +900 | -8 |
| Danny Willett | +2500 | -6 |
| Jason Day | +3500 | -5 |
| Henrik Norlander | +5000 | -5 |
| Patrick Cantlay | +10000 | -3 |
| Rory McIlroy | +10000 | -2 |
The best options to overtake Rahm are Tony Finau and Ryan Palmer. Four shots is a lot to make up, especially with how well the leader is playing, but a couple of birdies in combination with a bogey from Rahm and this tournament becomes very close.
If you want some outright winner action, the play would be Palmer. It's unlikely he will erase the four-shot deficit, but he's been hitting the ball better than Finau this week in terms of strokes gained: tee to green. If Palmer rolls in a few more putts, he'll have a chance of catching Rahm.
Conditions at Muirfield Village are expected to be extremely tough once again on Sunday. That means a player who goes out earlier in the day - when the course is playing a little softer and birdies are more likely - could post a low number and hope the leaders fall way back.
Patrick Cantlay is someone who could shoot a 66 and hope 9-under is enough to win. He shot 64 in the final round to win the Memorial last year, and at +10000, the chance he pulls off a repeat performance might be worth a small wager.
If nothing catches your eye in the outright market, here are a few players to target in matchup bets.
Matthew Wolff: The 21-year-old has turned in back-to-back rounds of incredible ball-striking and led the field in strokes gained: tee to green in Round 3. He clearly found something in his swing that should carry into Sunday.
Bubba Watson: He gained 1.8 shots off the tee and another 1.8 strokes through his approach game on Saturday. He's fourth in strokes gained: tee to green for the week and should only need an average day of putting to post a low score.
Collin Morikawa: After a sluggish start following his win at Muirfield last week, Morikawa quickly figured it out. His elite ball-striking was on display Saturday and an early tee time on Sunday should aid his attempt at shooting a low score to finish the week.
(Odds courtesy: theScore Bet)
