RBC Heritage final-round betting preview
The leaderboard heading into Sunday at the RBC Heritage is a complete logjam. There are four players sharing the top spot and 21 within three shots of the lead.
This tournament is still wide open.
The final round is even more interesting because history at Harbour Town Golf Links indicates there will likely be a come-from-behind winner. Six of the last seven winners were trailing by three-plus shots heading into Sunday. C.T. Pan was the only exception during that stretch, and he overcame a two-shot deficit to win last year.
Those factors make Sunday's final round very interesting from a betting perspective, with plenty of players who can be considered.
Here's how the top of the oddsboard shakes out (courtesy of theScore Bet):
| Player | Odds | To Par | T2G rank | Putt rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Webb Simpson | +400 | -15 | 21 | 6 |
| Abraham Ancer | +450 | -15 | 2 | 60 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | +600 | -15 | 51 | 1 |
| Daniel Berger | +800 | -14 | 39 | 3 |
| Ryan Palmer | +1000 | -15 | 3 | 56 |
| Joel Dahmen | +1200 | -14 | 8 | 31 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | +1500 | -12 | 20 | 30 |
| Ian Poulter | +1500 | -13 | 24 | 14 |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | +1500 | -13 | 41 | 5 |
| Brooks Koepka | +2200 | -12 | 37 | 12 |
| Carlos Ortiz | +2500 | -14 | 48 | 2 |
| Corey Conners | +2500 | -13 | 7 | 46 |
| Dustin Johnson | +2500 | -12 | 16 | 37 |
| Sergio Garcia | +2800 | -13 | 1 | 75 |
| Joaquin Niemann | +3000 | -13 | 4 | 57 |
| Erik van Rooyen | +4000 | -13 | 6 | 48 |
*"T2G" is strokes gained: tee to green through three rounds. "Putt" is strokes gained: putting
Webb Simspon is the narrow favorite over Abraham Ancer after earning a share of the lead while leaning on his hot putter. Simpson and Tyrrell Hatton - who leads the field in strokes gained: putting - are the two likely candidates to fall out of the top spot.
Hatton even admitted he's struggling to get comfortable over the ball right now, which isn't a good sign for someone playing in the final pairing.
Ancer ranks second in strokes gained: tee to green through three rounds, and he's one solid round of putting away from his first PGA Tour win. However, his +450 is fairly short considering the number of chasers he'll be fending off.
Ryan Palmer is interesting at +1000. He's a co-leader despite ranking 56th in strokes gained: putting. Like Ancer, if Palmer can sink a couple of extra putts on Sunday, this tournament is his to win.
So, what's the key heading into Sunday for bettors? Target players who are striking the ball well but struggling on the greens. A player stands a far greater chance of making a few more putts in a round than he does of suddenly hitting the ball better.
Picks to win
Ryan Palmer (+1000)
If you want to pick one of the 54-hole co-leaders, then Palmer stands out as a value play. He's been given over double the odds of his 15-under counterparts, but Palmer is striking the ball better than nearly everyone in the field.
Sergio Garcia (+2800)
Sergio Garcia leads the field in strokes gained: tee to green while sitting dead last in putting. If one of those stats is going be corrected, it will be how he putts on Sunday at Harbour Town.
The Spaniard has lost nearly five shots with the flatstick, and he's still in contention. He sits three back and well within striking distance.
Erik van Rooyen (+4000)
The biggest value on the board is easily Erik van Rooyen at +4000. The South African is playing exceptionally well tee to green - currently ranked sixth - and is near the field average in putting.
Van Rooyen's lowest round of the week is 66, and many of the players he's chasing already shot their lowest rounds this week. He sits three back and is likely saving his best for last.