It's AT&T Byron Nelson week on the PGA Tour, with Trinity Forest Golf Club in Dallas playing host to the event. If this tournament doesn't get your juices flowing, simply view it as the last event before Tiger Woods will make his return.
Trinity Forest is a 7,371-yard, par-71 track that was designed to play firm and fast while relying on wind as its main defense. However, with rain being dumped on the Dallas area for most of the week leading up to Round 1 - along with calm winds in the forecast - the tournament is likely to become a birdie-fest.
Additionally, the course played easy last year, with Aaron Wise winning at 23-under par. Just check out these two telling stats from the 2018 edition:
Trinity Forest (home of the AT&T Byron Nelson this week) had the easiest fairways to hit (79.5%) and 2nd-easiest greens in regulation to hit (76.8%) on the PGA Tour last season. Likely a stark contrast to what the players can expect at Bethpage.
— Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) May 7, 2019
So, with an emphasis on distance off the tee and strong approach games, here are the best bets to make this week:
To win outright
Keith Mitchell (28-1)
It was only a few months ago that Mitchell won the Honda Classic despite 225-1 odds. Even with his number nearly 10 times lower this week, he makes for a great pick. The 27-year-old has proven he knows how to win and that he can make clutch putts down the stretch. He's also coming off a top-10 showing at the Wells Fargo.
Last year at the Byron Nelson, Mitchell gained 10.6 strokes: tee to green en route to a T-3 result. His ability to make enough birdies to keep pace with the leaders, assuming he isn't already in first, will give him a chance come Sunday.
Rafa Cabrera Bello (40-1)
Cabrera Bello ranks 33rd on Tour in strokes gained: off the tee despite not being considered a bomber. And being able to put the ball in the right spots off the tee is just as important as distance at Trinity Forest because certain angles to the green make approach shots much easier. Additionally, Cabrera Bello's short-game struggles won't be tested as much given how little rough there is around the greens.
The Spaniard has yet to break through on the PGA Tour, but Trinity Forest is a course that rewards his skill set. If he catches a hot putter, look out.
Trey Mullinax (80-1)
Mullinax has quietly turned into a fantastic ball-striker even though his results haven't been there. He's gaining a ton of strokes off the tee and ranks 18th in driving distance on Tour. The former Alabama star has also gained more than six strokes through approach shots in back-to-back weeks. A win is coming for the 26-year-old, and Trinity Forest appears to be the perfect fit.
Jimmy Walker (90-1)
Any time you can get a former major winner at 90-1 on a course he's found success at in the past, it seems like a no-brainer. Walker placed T-6 at the Byron Nelson last year and has made five straight cuts in recent events - an encouraging trend despite no top-30 finishes. The Texas resident has always hit the ball a long way, and his lack of accuracy shouldn't be an issue here.
Top-5 finish
Dylan Frittelli (18-1)
Ignore his funny glasses - this guy can play. Frittelli hails from South Africa but is a former Longhorn, so he's familiar with the Texas climate. He consistently gains strokes with his driver, which he backs up with a strong approach game. Putting has always been the issue for the 28-year-old, but he's trending toward a high finish at a PGA Tour event. His outright odds at 100-1 are also worth a couple of bucks.
Player matchups
Aaron Wise (-115) over Jordan Spieth
The narrative around Spieth this week is whether the Dallas native will finally post a solid finish at a course where he's a member, but that's ignoring the fact that he still hasn't found his game. Excluding his strokes-gained stats from the Masters, Spieth has lost strokes off the tee in five of his past six events. His putter looks to have bounced back, but that's about it.
Wise, on the other hand, is trending toward a top-five result with back-to-back top-18 showings that were largely due to his driver. He's also the defending champion at Trinity Forest, so it will likely take a near-perfect performance from Spieth to win this matchup.
Henrik Stenson (-120) over Marc Leishman
Leishman finished runner-up at the Byron Nelson last season, but the course played much differently than it's expected to this week. He thrives with firm conditions that resemble tracks in Australia, which will be out of the question if rain continues to come down on Trinity Forest.
Meanwhile, Stenson will likely take advantage of the softer-than-expected greens and will rely heavily on his scorching-hot approach game to attack pins. As a whole, Stenson is simply playing better and Leishman is getting a bump in the odds based on last year's success.
Odds courtesy: Bodog
