The Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow Club presents players with one of the toughest stops on the PGA Tour schedule. It ranked as the third-hardest non-major venue in 2018, and at 7,554 yards, graded as the third-longest course golfers faced.
Quail Hollow not only tests players driving ability and iron play, but it also asks questions about a golfer's short game. Jason Day, however fluky it may have been, won last year by gaining five strokes around the green and over eight with his putter. Typically, players' short game and putting are much more difficult to predict, but it's worth noting before making any picks.
With a heavy focus on driving distance, in combination with recent form and course history, here are the best bets for the week:
Outright to win
Tony Finau (22-1)
If you are a frequent Finau backer, you know of his longtime struggle to find the winner's circle. But if he's ever going to win, (It has to happen eventually, right?) it's going to come on a course like Quail Hollow. Finau's distance gives him a huge advantage and raises his floor of outcomes this week compared to others, proven by four straight made cuts at this track. He's also showing signs of improved putting compared to previous years.
Finau got off to a surprisingly slow start to the season. His first top-five finish came in his last tournament, which happened to be the Masters. Hopefully, his success at Augusta can carry over into his first big-time win on Tour.
Aaron Wise (66-1)
In his rookie season last year, Wise finished second to Day at the Wells Fargo Championship before going on to win the next week. The 22-year-old ranks inside the top 30 in both strokes gained: off-the-tee and driving distance this season on Tour, and he's coming off a solid T-17 showing in his first-ever Masters appearance.
Luke List (80-1)
If you're looking for distance off the tee, there are few who bomb it as well as List. He ranks second on Tour in driving distance and 10th in strokes gained: off the tee. Quail Hollow's length plays right into List's hands.
List finished T-9 at the 2018 Wells Fargo, where he gained a whopping seven strokes with his driver. Like every week with the 34-year-old, it will come down to his putter. We'll see if it shows up this week and can propel him to his first PGA Tour win.
Top American
It's worth mentioning that five of the top six favorites are not American, so there is a real chance there's an international winner this week. If that worries you, there's value in looking at the top American odds, with Finau (10-1), Wise (22-1), and List (33-1) all reasonable options should Rory McIlroy runs away with the tournament.
Tournament Matchups
Hideki Matsuyama (+100) over Justin Rose
You can never read too far into what a player says before a tournament, but Justin Rose admitted on Tuesday: "I've got no idea where my game is this week, to be honest with you." Rose's apparent lack of confidence stems from his ugly missed cut at the Masters, and it could actually mean something.
Hideki Matsuyama, on the other hand, gained over five strokes tee-to-green in six straight events leading up to Augusta. He also overcame a disastrous start at the Masters to finish 32nd. As an underdog versus a less-than-confident Rose, Matsuyama is the play.
Phil Mickelson (-110) over Sergio Garcia
Phil Mickelson has missed the cut once at Quail Hollow in the past 10 years, which came at the 2017 PGA Championship. In his other nine finishes, his average finishing position is 7.7. That's an impressive track record for Mickelson, who happens to be playing very well this season.
Sergio Garica's history at Quail Hollow is spotty at best. Since 2009, he's played it four times in competition, chalking up two missed cuts, with his best start a T-16 in 2013.
(Odds courtesy: Bodog)
