The Valspar Championship at Innisbrook Resort's Copperhead Course will host a solid 144-man field. Dustin Johnson sits atop the betting board, creating some value further down.
The Tampa-area track presents a unique test for golfers, especially on approach shots. Copperhead's greens were the third-toughest to hit in regulation last season, according to 15th Club's Justin Ray.
With a heavy emphasis on strokes-gained approach, along with some current form and a bit of course history, here are the best bets for this week's action on the PGA Tour:
Henrik Stenson (35-1)
In a field weaker than usual, Henrik Stenson leaps off the page as a superb value play. Copperhead is a course that allows the Swede to unleash his deadly 3-wood off the tee and attack pins from the fairway. He's also gained a combined 9.2 strokes on approach shots in his last two tournaments.
His missed cut last week shouldn't be a deterrent, as TPC Sawgrass is one of the most unpredictable courses on the PGA Tour circuit. Expect Stenson to carry the form that earned him a 17th-place tie at Bay Hill into the Valspar, where he's finished inside the top 11 in three of the past four years.
Brandt Snedeker (40-1)
Brandt Snedeker played beautifully last week, doing so in uncommon fashion. He's a player who typically leans heavily on his putter, but he gained 4.9 strokes on approach shots at The Players. He also gained strokes in all other facets en route to a fifth-place result.
Snedeker's opening odds of 55-1 have been bet down to the current number of 40-1. It's still fair value and an indication that a lot of other bettors are on board with the pick.
Joaquin Niemann (125-1)
Joaquin Niemann is going to win on the PGA Tour and he'll do so within his next 100 starts. That means his odds at 125-1 are simply too high to pass up. He's one of the best iron players in the field and has displayed that skill in three straight tournaments. If he seems like too much of a longshot to pull off the win, at least take him on a top-10 finish at 11-1.
Kyoung-Hoon Lee (12-1)
Kyoung-Hoon Lee has come out of nowhere over the past month to become one of the Tour's premier iron players. He gained more than five strokes in his last two recorded events, finishing seventh in the Honda Classic at PGA National and 25th in the strong Genesis Open field at Riviera. If the 27-year-old can tackle those difficult tracks, Copperhead should hardly be insurmountable.
Roberto Castro (14-1)
Roberto Castro falls under the same category as Lee. He's entering the Valspar after an incredible approach-shot performance at the Honda Classic where he gained a whopping 7.1 strokes with his irons. If he can have an average week of putting, his odds of cracking the top 10 are certainly better than 14-1.
Henrik Stenson (+100) over Louis Oosthuizen
The love for Stenson this week has already been noted. Any time you have a chance to grab a player pegged to win as the underdog in a head-to-head matchup, you have to take it. It's not like Louis Oosthuizen has been doing anything special recently either. He's missed two cuts and his best Tour result so far this year is a tie-for-25th showing in Mexico.
Kevin Kisner (+100) over Jim Furyk
Jim Furyk is playing well, there's no argument there. But the hype may have gone too far; his odds to win have plummeted to 33-1 after his impressive runner-up showing at The Players. Kevin Kisner, meanwhile, is playing consistently well, pumping out five straight top-28 performances. The hope here is that Furyk is a burnt out from last week and that Kisner can jump into the top 10. Both are likely scenarios.
Odds courtesy: bet365.com