The PGA Tour heads to Jupiter, Fla., this week for the Honda Classic at PGA National.
Justin Thomas, Brooks Koepka and Rickie Fowler headline the 144-man field set to take on one of the Tour's toughest tests. The Champion Course at PGA National is a 7,125-yard par 70 that features the third-toughest three-hole stretch on the PGA Tour since 2007: the "Bear Trap," holes 15-17.
Success at the Honda Classic requires accuracy off the tee, avoiding water hazards on 14 different holes, and a strong approach game. Being comfortable putting on Bermuda grass greens will also benefit golfers.
Here are the event's best bets.
Outright winners
Gary Woodland (16-1)
Thanks to Justin Thomas being the heavy favorite at 5-1, there is value with the other top dogs in the field. Gary Woodland at 16-1 is shorter than usual, especially for a player who's won once in the past five years, but his numbers indicate he's worth it.
He ranks second in the field in strokes gained: tee to green over the past 24 rounds and has six top-10s in nine events played this season. Woodland was also the runner-up in 2016 at the Honda Classic, where he's made five straight cuts.
Webb Simpson (25-1)
Webb Simpson enters this week's Honda Classic in fine form, and returning to Bermuda grass should only improve his recent results. He's become one of the Tour's premier players on the surface, especially with the flatstick, as he ranks sixth in strokes gained: putting in the past 50 rounds on the grass type. Combine that with seven straight tournaments of positive strokes gained on approach shots, and the reigning Players champion is worth the gamble at 25-1.
Joaquin Niemann (125-1)
The 20-year-old rookie has yet to break out on a big stage, but he showed flashes of brilliance at the Genesis Open that indicate he's close. Despite finishing 44th at Riviera, Joaquin Niemann ranked 14th in strokes gained: tee to green, with his putter letting him down. His 10-1 top-10 odds are also enticing.
Top 20
Keith Mitchell (9-1)
Keith Mitchell will become a familiar face in betting previews, as his upside is too attractive to ignore. Despite not being ready to win (although at 225-1, that could be worth a buck), he can get into the mix if he avoids the big number. He'll be forced to hit less than driver off the tee, which will help avoid PGA National's seemingly endless water hazards. Now let's hope his putter shows up.
Tournament matchups
Luke List (+105) over Daniel Berger
Daniel Berger finished second last week at the alternate-field Puerto Rico Open, so everyone thinks he's back. However, he led the field in putts per green in regulation and ranked 54th in greens in regulation hit, indicating his performance was driven by a hot putter rather than solid ball-striking. Luke List has been doing the opposite, consistently turning out solid tee-to-green weeks while struggling with the putter.
Emiliano Grillo (+105) over Billy Horschel
The argument for Emiliano Grillo over Billy Horschel is the same as the one for List over Berger. Grillo's consistent tee-to-green game can rise to another level with a solid week of putting. Horschel's recent results were driven by his putter as he struggled off the tee and with his irons. Take the player more likely to make the weekend with top-10 upside.
Jason Kokrak (-110) over Kiradech Aphibarnrat
Jason Kokrak is severely underrated in this spot, as he enters the Honda Classic having made 13 straight cuts. On the other hand, you're paying for Kiradech Aphibarnrat's third-place finish in Mexico last week on a course that doesn't compare at all to PGA National.
With water hazards on 14-of-18 holes, Aphibarnrat will encounter trouble with his recklessness off the tee. Kokrak's consistency and ball-striking skills give him the edge.
(Odds courtesy: bet365)
