PGA picks: Expect Rory to end major drought at Bellerive

It seems like just yesterday that Francesco Molinari was holding off the likes of Rory McIlroy and Tiger Woods to claim the Open Championship, but it's already time for the season's final major.

The PGA Championship is on the slate this week at Bellerive Country Club - the last time it will be played in August before moving back to May on the schedule next year.

Heavy rain ahead of the championship has softened the course, making it a paradise for those with excellent length off the tee. With that in mind, here are the picks for this week:

Favorite to watch (odds shorter than 20-1)

Rory McIlroy

Once again, McIlroy put himself in contention at a big tournament, and once again, he failed to close the deal. The 29-year-old found himself in the final group on Sunday at the WGC-Bridgestone, but sputtered to a sixth-place finish. While his inability to close this year has been concerning, the wet conditions at Bellerive will be perfect for McIlroy's incredible ball-striking. The four-time major winner thrives in conditions that require a ton of birdies, and with that situation facing the players this week, don't be shocked if he walks away with his second career PGA Championship.

Odds to win: 12-1
Top-5 odds: 11-4

Second tier (odds 20-1 or longer)

Justin Rose

Rose withdrew from the WGC-Bridgestone last week with back issues, but all signs point to him being ready for the season's final major. The Englishman is having another brilliant year as a ball-striker, ranking seventh on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: tee to green - a stat that's led to eight top-10 finishes in 13 starts. Rose has also yet to finish outside the top 12 in a major this year, so expect him to be in contention this weekend with Bellerive set up for strong iron play.

Odds to win: 22-1
Top-5 odds: 4-1

Long shot (odds 50-1 or longer)

Bubba Watson

Watson hasn't had much success at the PGA Championship in the past, but his prodigious length and solid wedge play should fit Bellerive nicely. The majority of the holes at the St Louis-area track require right-to-left shots off the tee, and Watson's cut with the driver should be perfect for those situations. At 50-1, he's a solid value bet to get the putter going and fly up the leaderboard.

Odds to win: 50-1
Top-5 odds: 10-1

Super long shot (odds 80-1 or longer)

Bryson DeChambeau

There's always the potential for a blowup from DeChambeau, but the volatile American is an incredible value play at 80-1. The 24-year-old has been in the news for the wrong reasons lately thanks to his epic collapse in Germany a couple of weeks ago, but the soft conditions this week are perfect for his skill set. He ranks 12th on Tour in strokes gained: tee to green, and sits just outside the eight automatic Ryder Cup spots heading into this tournament. Look for DeChambeau to cement his spot on the United States squad with a strong showing this week.

Odds to win: 80-1
Top-5 odds: 11-1

Hit this bet, buy a car (odds 125-1 or longer)

Luke List

While he may not be a household name, List is one of the top ball-strikers on Tour, ranking fifth in strokes gained: tee to green. He also ranks 172nd in strokes gained: putting, but with slow greens expected at Bellerive, List should be able to navigate the surfaces. The 33-year-old finished in the top 25 at the WGC-Bridgestone and could make some noise this week in the steamy conditions.

Odds to win: 125-1
Top-5 odds: 20-1

Last event's results

Rory McIlroy: T-6
Jason Day: T-10
Bubba Watson: T-31
Adam Scott: T-57
Brendan Steele: T-60

Season record (30 events)

Wins: 8 (Paul Casey 25-1, Bubba Watson 50-1, Dustin Johnson 15-2, Jon Rahm 8-1, Billy Horschel/Scott Piercy 40-1, Bubba Watson 28-1, Francesco Molinari 22-1, Dustin Johnson 13-2)
Top 5: 14

(Odds courtesy: Bodog)
(Photos courtesy: Getty Images)