PGA picks: Simpson to thrive at iconic Harbour Town

AUGUSTA, GA - APRIL 08: Webb Simpson of the United States plays his second shot on the fifth hole during the final round of the 2018 Masters Tournament at Augusta National Golf Club on April 8, 2018 in Augusta, Georgia.
David Cannon / Getty Images Sport / Getty

An incredible Masters has come and gone with Patrick Reed claiming the green jacket, and the PGA Tour rolls on to another iconic event: the RBC Heritage Classic at Harbour Town.

One of the most unique courses on the schedule presents a much different test than golfers face most weeks on Tour, as Harbour Town places a premium on accuracy off the tee, not distance.

Dustin Johnson, Paul Casey, and Matt Kuchar highlight the field, but they aren't among our five players to target this week.

Favorite to watch (odds 25-1 or shorter)

Webb Simpson

Simpson used to contend at PGA Tour events and even won a U.S. Open with subpar putting, but the flatstick has now become a weapon for the veteran pro. The 32-year-old ranks 10th on Tour in strokes gained putting and is fresh off a scorching 5-under 67 in the final round at The Masters. He's also made seven straight cuts at Harbour Town, and should be primed for a solid showing.

Odds to win: 25-1
Top-five odds: 6-1

Second tier (odds 25-1 or longer)

Ollie Schniederjans

Harbour Town sports the smallest putting greens the players will face all year, so strong iron play and above-average scrambling are keys to victory. Schniederjans fits that profile perfectly, as he ranks 34th in strokes gained approaching the green and 21st in strokes gained around the green. The 24-year-old has also shown he's comfortable at this event, posting a third-place finish last year with four rounds in the 60s.

Odds to win: 33-1
Top-five odds: 15-2

Long shot (odds 50-1 or longer)

Scott Piercy

Piercy is a marksman with his irons. He ranks fourth on Tour in strokes gained on approach shots, making him an attractive pick around the tiny greens this week. He's an average scrambler, but if his irons are on point, that will be more than good enough to keep him on the leaderboard. Piercy is off to a solid start in the 2017-18 season as well, posting six top-25 finishes in 11 events.

Odds to win: 75-1
Top-five odds: 14-1

Super long shot (odds 80-1 or longer)

Martin Kaymer

Kaymer didn't play particularly well in previous stops at Harbour Town and has been slow to recover from the wrist injury that kept him out to start this season. The 33-year-old made the cut at The Masters but failed to break par on any of his four rounds. That should still be considered a solid step forward in his recovery, and the former world No. 1 is ready to take another at Harbour Town. Look for a vintage performance from Kaymer to put him in contention this weekend.

Odds to win: 100-1
Top-five odds: 16-1

Hit this bet, buy a car (odds 100-1 or longer)

Bill Haas

It's been a trying season for Bill Haas after the 35-year-old was the passenger in a car accident that killed his friend. This is Haas' third event since the crash, and he's had mixed results at Harbour Town in previous years. While the six-time winner on Tour hasn't had a strong overall season, he ranks fairly well in the statistical categories that are important this week: He's 51st in strokes gained approaching the green and an impressive ninth in strokes gained around the green. That should give him the confidence to contend.

Odds to win: 100-1
Top-five odds: 18-1

Last event's results

Dustin Johnson: T-10
Jason Day: T-20
Adam Scott: T-32
Tony Finau: T-10
Kevin Chappell: MC

Season Record (13 events)

Wins: 4 (Paul Casey 25-1, Bubba Watson 50-1, Dustin Johnson 15-2, Jon Rahm 8-1)
Top five: 8

(Odds courtesy: Bodog)
(Photos courtesy: Getty Images)

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