55:I[29208,["$2","$3","$4","$5","$6","$7","$8","$9","$a","$1c","$2b","$2c","$2d"],"default"] 4f:T202c,

Barring an incredible hot streak and a collapse from the teams in front of them, the Ottawa Senators have likely excused themselves from Stanley Cup Playoffs contention. A win against the Pittsburgh Penguins on Monday night could resuscitate their chances, but in the three-point game era, it's very difficult to make up ground in the final weeks of the season.

Ottawa lost six of its last seven games, and its slide has come in conjunction with an injury to Cam Talbot, who missed 10 games when the season began (Ottawa went 4-6).

When the Senators (now 20-1 to make the playoffs) miss the postseason, will it simply be because their veteran 35-year-old stopgap starter wasn't available at the beginning and virtual end of their season?

Here's a look at the four goaltenders the Senators used more than once this season and how they've fared relative to the average goaltender, using goals saved above expectation.

PLAYER	GSAx	GSAx/60 MIN.
Cam Talbot	5.04	0.17
Anton Forsberg	2.94	0.12
Mads Sogaard	-3.48	-0.31
Kevin Mandolese	3.17	1.04

Per 60 minutes, Anton Forsberg has held up in deputizing for Talbot, while Mads Sogaard has been the weak link of the trio. In what is likely a good example of small-sample bias, Kevin Mandolese excelled in the three appearances he had this season.

While all this is cool for Senators fans, as bettors it's theoretically need-to-know information, especially with Forsberg out for the season and Sogaard the nominal starter until Talbot comes back. Here's the problem:

PLAYER	ML RECORD
Cam Talbot	15-15
Anton Forsberg	11-13
Mads Sogaard	5-6
Kevin Mandolese	1-2

Despite the difference in the metric evaluation of each goaltender, the Senators have been virtually .500 when any of them have started. However, it's important to know what might happen with Sogaard now playing nightly. He went 4-1 in spot starts against five teams that aren't currently in the playoffs, but since getting the No. 1 workload, he's 1-5 - with four games coming against playoff teams.

On the surface, there isn't likely to be a valuable bet on Senators-Penguins on Monday night, as listed below. But if there's a hidden element that would hurt the Sens' rating based on inexperience in net, the Penguins might be the side to back.

The recipe

We started the season using regular-season point totals as a baseline for rating teams since it's our best measurement. Throughout the campaign, we adjust club ratings using on-ice metrics to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-teams results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

The cheat sheet

There are no bad bets at the right price, but how do we know what a good price is?

The following includes my fair price on the games (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I'd need to bet either side. I only need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. For games I project to be closer to a coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough for a worthwhile wager. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for a team on the second leg of a back-to-back without travel. When it comes to injured players, I do my best to estimate the impact on their team's win probability.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. The moneyline could also move into a bet-friendly range at some point between market open and puck drop.

DATE	GAME	TRUE ML	PRICE TO BET
March 20	OTT@PIT	+140/-140	OTT +166/PIT -134
	FLA@DET	-158/+158	FLA -151/DET +187
	CHI@COL	+220/-220	CHI +267/COL -210
	SJS@EDM	+221/-221	SJS +268/EDM -211
	CGY@LAK	+111/-111	CGY +131/LAK -107
March 21	MIN@NJD	+187/-187	MIN +225/NJD -179
	OTT@BOS	+251/-251	OTT +309/BOS -239
	CAR@NYR	-124/+124	CAR -119/NYR +146
	TBL@MTL	-193/+193	TBL -184/MTL +232
	NSH@BUF	+149/-149	NSH +176/BUF -143
	FLA@PHI	-124/+124	FLA -119/PHI +146
	CBJ@WSH	+160/-160	CBJ +190/WSH -153
	TOR@NYI	-120/+120	TOR -115/NYI +141
	ARI@WPG	+176/-176	ARI +210/WPG -169
	DET@STL	+137/-137	DET +162/STL -132
	SEA@DAL	+139/-139	SEA +165/DAL -134
	VGK@VAN	-116/+116	VGK -111/VAN +136
	CGY@ANA	-151/+151	CGY -145/ANA +179
March 22	PIT@COL	+116/-116	PIT +136/COL -111
	ARI@EDM	+300/-300	ARI +376/EDM -285
March 23	MIN@PHI	-104/+104	MIN +107/PHI +115
	TOR@FLA	+120/-120	TOR +141/FLA -115
	CHI@WSH	+185/-185	CHI +222/WSH -177
	NYR@CAR	+172/-172	NYR +206/CAR -165
	MTL@BOS	+318/-318	MTL +401/BOS -301
	TBL@OTT	-129/+129	TBL -124/OTT +152
	STL@DET	+123/-123	STL +145/DET -118
	SEA@NSH	-120/+120	SEA -116/NSH +142
	PIT@DAL	+149/-149	PIT +176/DAL -143
	VGK@CGY	+123/-123	VGK +145/CGY -118
	SJS@VAN	+148/-148	SJS +175/VAN -142
	WPG@ANA	-146/+146	WPG -140/ANA +173

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

50:T202c,

Ottawa lost six of its last seven games, and its slide has come in conjunction with an injury to Cam Talbot, who missed 10 games when the season began (Ottawa went 4-6).

Here's a look at the four goaltenders the Senators used more than once this season and how they've fared relative to the average goaltender, using goals saved above expectation.

PLAYER	GSAx	GSAx/60 MIN.
Cam Talbot	5.04	0.17
Anton Forsberg	2.94	0.12
Mads Sogaard	-3.48	-0.31
Kevin Mandolese	3.17	1.04

PLAYER	ML RECORD
Cam Talbot	15-15
Anton Forsberg	11-13
Mads Sogaard	5-6
Kevin Mandolese	1-2

The recipe

The cheat sheet

There are no bad bets at the right price, but how do we know what a good price is?

DATE	GAME	TRUE ML	PRICE TO BET
March 20	OTT@PIT	+140/-140	OTT +166/PIT -134
	FLA@DET	-158/+158	FLA -151/DET +187
	CHI@COL	+220/-220	CHI +267/COL -210
	SJS@EDM	+221/-221	SJS +268/EDM -211
	CGY@LAK	+111/-111	CGY +131/LAK -107
March 21	MIN@NJD	+187/-187	MIN +225/NJD -179
	OTT@BOS	+251/-251	OTT +309/BOS -239
	CAR@NYR	-124/+124	CAR -119/NYR +146
	TBL@MTL	-193/+193	TBL -184/MTL +232
	NSH@BUF	+149/-149	NSH +176/BUF -143
	FLA@PHI	-124/+124	FLA -119/PHI +146
	CBJ@WSH	+160/-160	CBJ +190/WSH -153
	TOR@NYI	-120/+120	TOR -115/NYI +141
	ARI@WPG	+176/-176	ARI +210/WPG -169
	DET@STL	+137/-137	DET +162/STL -132
	SEA@DAL	+139/-139	SEA +165/DAL -134
	VGK@VAN	-116/+116	VGK -111/VAN +136
	CGY@ANA	-151/+151	CGY -145/ANA +179
March 22	PIT@COL	+116/-116	PIT +136/COL -111
	ARI@EDM	+300/-300	ARI +376/EDM -285
March 23	MIN@PHI	-104/+104	MIN +107/PHI +115
	TOR@FLA	+120/-120	TOR +141/FLA -115
	CHI@WSH	+185/-185	CHI +222/WSH -177
	NYR@CAR	+172/-172	NYR +206/CAR -165
	MTL@BOS	+318/-318	MTL +401/BOS -301
	TBL@OTT	-129/+129	TBL -124/OTT +152
	STL@DET	+123/-123	STL +145/DET -118
	SEA@NSH	-120/+120	SEA -116/NSH +142
	PIT@DAL	+149/-149	PIT +176/DAL -143
	VGK@CGY	+123/-123	VGK +145/CGY -118
	SJS@VAN	+148/-148	SJS +175/VAN -142
	WPG@ANA	-146/+146	WPG -140/ANA +173

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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Period"},{"key":"line_movement","default":false,"display":"Money Line Movement (Pre-Game)"},{"key":"over_under_movement","default":false,"display":"Over/Under Movement (Pre-Game)"},{"key":"over_under_watch","default":false,"display":"Over/Under Watch"}]}],"relevant_tags":[{"uri":"/hockey/players/10795","name":"M. Sogaard","type":"PlayerTag","images":{"small":"https://d1si3tbndbzwz9.cloudfront.net/transparent_default_headshot_small.png"},"api_uri":"/nhl/players/10795","colours":[],"subscribable_alerts":[{"key":"player_news","default":true,"display":"Breaking News"},{"key":"goals_allowed","default":false,"display":"Goals Allowed"},{"key":"final_player_stats","default":false,"display":"Final Player Stats"},{"key":"substitutions","default":false,"display":"Substitutions"}],"has_transparent_headshots":false}],"display_type":"default"}}] 51:Td1a,

Senators captain Brady Tkachuk gave Mads Sogaard a vote of confidence after a litany of injuries to Ottawa's crease forced the 22-year-old goaltender into the spotlight.

"He's a young goalie, but he's our goalie of the future," Tkachuk said after Thursday's 5-4 loss to the Colorado Avalanche. "He's going to take us to the Stanley Cup, and he's going to take us to that next level that we want to get to.

"It's just a shitty situation that he's in right now with the pressure and him being such a young goalie, but we have all the belief in him, all the faith. It’s unbelievable how good of a player he is already. He's already stepping in and giving us a chance to win."

Sogaard owns a 5-4-1 record this season to go along with an .883 save percentage and 3.46 goals against average.

All of his starts have come after the All-Star break; Anton Forsberg's season effectively ended after he suffered MCL tears in both knees on Feb. 11, while the injured Cam Talbot has been limited to just four games since Feb. 1 and is expected to miss around two more weeks with a mid-body ailment.

The Senators have had to rely on Sogaard and inexperienced backup Kevin Mandolese as they fight for a place in the postseason. They're eight points behind the New York Islanders for the second wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference.

Ottawa pushed its losing streak to four games with Thursday's dramatic defeat to the defending Stanley Cup champions. Avalanche forward Lars Eller potted the eventual game-winner during a bizarre sequence in the second period.

The Senators appeared to think an icing call was imminent, but the whistle wasn't blown to stop play. Eller then tapped in the puck sitting in the crease.

LARS ELLER. WOW! 😂 pic.twitter.com/z7Mlrnz8YH
— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) March 17, 2023

Tkachuk made it clear the Senators didn't blame Sogaard for the incident.

"It's one of the weirdest goals this year. ... I feel terrible for him," he said.

The Senators selected Sogaard in the second round of the 2019 draft. He registered an .889 save percentage and 3.07 goals against average in two showings last season.

52:Td1a,

Senators captain Brady Tkachuk gave Mads Sogaard a vote of confidence after a litany of injuries to Ottawa's crease forced the 22-year-old goaltender into the spotlight.

Sogaard owns a 5-4-1 record this season to go along with an .883 save percentage and 3.46 goals against average.

The Senators appeared to think an icing call was imminent, but the whistle wasn't blown to stop play. Eller then tapped in the puck sitting in the crease.

LARS ELLER. WOW! 😂 pic.twitter.com/z7Mlrnz8YH
— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) March 17, 2023

Tkachuk made it clear the Senators didn't blame Sogaard for the incident.

"It's one of the weirdest goals this year. ... I feel terrible for him," he said.

The Senators selected Sogaard in the second round of the 2019 draft. He registered an .889 save percentage and 3.07 goals against average in two showings last season.

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Cam Talbot will be back in the Ottawa Senators' crease when they face the Carolina Hurricanes on Friday, Senators head coach D.J. Smith said Wednesday.

Talbot has been out since leaving Ottawa's victory over the New York Islanders on Jan. 25 due to what his club called a lower-body injury.

The Sens went 6-2-1 in Talbot's absence with Anton Forsberg, Mads Sogaard, and Kevin Mandolese filling the void. Forsberg went 3-1-0 after Talbot got hurt but then sustained significant injuries of his own. The 30-year-old Swede was ruled out for two-to-three months on Feb. 13 due to MCL tears in both knees.

Sogaard and Mandolese, both 22, performed admirably with the veterans on the shelf. Sogaard went 2-0-1 with a .913 save percentage in four games, while Mandolese went 1-1-0 while stopping 75 of 80 shots for a .938 save percentage.

Talbot is 12-13-1 with a .905 save percentage over 28 contests this season. The 35-year-old is in his first campaign with the Senators, who acquired him in a trade with the Minnesota Wild for netminder Filip Gustavsson in July.

54:T7e6,

Cam Talbot will be back in the Ottawa Senators' crease when they face the Carolina Hurricanes on Friday, Senators head coach D.J. Smith said Wednesday.

Talbot has been out since leaving Ottawa's victory over the New York Islanders on Jan. 25 due to what his club called a lower-body injury.

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