Tied 2-2, the Maple Leafs and Panthers series has become a best-of-three battle. Here are 10 Toronto-Florida thoughts to preview Wednesday's Game 5.
1. Matthews needs Nylander boost
Auston Matthews has impacted this series in a positive way. The Leafs are outscoring the Panthers 5-2 in his five-on-five minutes, and his most common opponent, Aleksander Barkov, has been held to one even-strength point.
Yet, Matthews has underwhelmed overall. The greatest regular season goal-scorer of the past nine years has two goals in 10 playoff games - none versus Florida - and looked ordinary in the process. Where's the momentum-building gallop through the neutral zone? All-world explosiveness and deception in his shot? Swagger and assertiveness in the offensive zone? Power-play prowess?
Matthews could be nursing an injury, feeling unconfident, getting bad puck luck, or falling victim to strong defending. In all likelihood, it's a combination of all four factors. Coach Craig Berube needs to do his part to get No. 34 going.
William Nylander, Toronto's most dangerous player all postseason, should get a few shifts on Matthews' right wing early in Game 5. The Swede's dynamism could unlock different, better looks for Matthews, especially off the rush. From a playmaking perspective, Matthews would have a natural sniper to pass to. That double dual-threat attack could be a lot for even the Panthers to handle.
If it doesn't work out, all good. Mitch Marner is there for another shot at 1RW.
2. Tkachuk, Reinhart are due
Two Panthers seem to be marching toward breakthrough performances.
Matthew Tkachuk, sidelined by injury for the final two months of the regular season, has progressively improved in the playoffs. He's back to being a pest and using his elite hockey sense (beautiful heads-up, cross-ice pass for the primary assist on Game 4's eventual winning goal). However, the two-time 100-point winger is still searching for his first multi-point outing in Round 2.
Sam Reinhart leads the Panthers in shot attempts (38), shots on goal (17), and expected goals (2.16), according to Natural Stat Trick. He hit the crossbar in Games 2 and 3, then nailed the post in Game 4. Ironically, a Game 3 jam play in the Leafs' crease counts as his lone goal. He's primed for a proper snipe.
3. Woll's play trending up
Leafs goalie Joseph Woll has allowed 13 goals on 121 Florida shots since coming in midway through Game 1 to replace injured starter Anthony Stolarz.
Of those 13 goals, nine have been scored from below the hashmarks, two from inside the left circle, and one from the high slot. Put another way, Woll's mostly been beaten on high-leverage scoring chances - nothing overly soft.
The 26-year-old's pedestrian playoff save percentage (.893) certainly doesn't do his trajectory justice. His timing, reads, rebound control, and puckhandling have all sharpened game to game, which is excellent news for the Leafs.
4. Leafs can't let Florida dictate play
Odd-man rushes are 19-13 for Toronto, however, most of the Leafs' fast-break damage came in Games 1-3. Florida was dialed into its structure in Game 4.
As so many playoff opponents have found out over the past few years, the Panthers can be frustratingly efficient at closing windows of space. For instance, if Florida's on its game and there's a 50-50 battle on the boards in the offensive zone, the strong-side defenseman is winning that puck. Or, if the other team has possession and numbers in the neutral zone, a Panthers forward is quickly eliminating any advantage with relentless back pressure.
The Leafs don't necessarily need to turn into a dump-and-chase team in Game 5, but they must do a better job of relieving pressure. Toronto pierced through Florida's structure early in the series by completing short passes in the defensive zone and chipping pucks into open areas elsewhere.
5. The Domi question mark(s)
Which version of Max Domi is going to show up to close out the series?
The Leafs forward who for short stretches has exploded on the attack, most notably scoring the winning goal in Game 2 of the first round? Or the Domi who for long stretches has been ineffective and taken stupid penalties?
6. Lundell line seriously good
Berube is presumably going to use home-ice last change to minimize the Barkov line Wednesday. It's what any reasonable coach would do. And yet, the scariest Panthers trio might not be Barkov's, or the Sam Bennett-centered line, but rather Anton Lundell between Brad Marchand and Eetu Luostarinen.
The Panthers outscored the Leafs 2-1 while outshooting them 5-4 with the Lundell line on the ice in Game 1. Their minutes in Game 2 came mostly against John Tavares, Nylander, and Max Pacioretty and yielded two goals and eight shots for Florida and zero goals and two shots for Toronto.
Games 3 and 4 were more workmanlike. Tasked with shutting down Matthews, Marner, and Matthew Knies, the Lundell line survived - 0-1 in goals, 7-9 in shots. Marchand scored the Game 3 overtime winner alongside Lundell but with Luostarinen on the bench waiting for a Carter Verhaeghe change.
7. Leafs must shake up bottom six
The bottom two lines' lack of production has become an issue for the Leafs.
Domi's the only depth forward to put up a goal in the playoffs (and he has two). That means absolutely nothing of substance from Bobby McMann (20 goals in 74 regular season games), Scott Laughton (13 in 80 games), Steven Lorentz (eight in 80), Pontus Holmberg (seven in 68), and Calle Jarnkrok (one in 19).
McMann, a big, speedy winger with utility in all three zones, will end his 21-game drought eventually. He's been good enough to keep his lineup spot.
Otherwise, Game 5 is a perfect time to insert David Kampf. The defensively responsible center isn't a major upgrade on the others, but Berube may as well try a different blend. Jarnkrok, Holmberg, and Laughton have had positive moments in the playoffs, so Lorentz feels like the right guy to scratch.
It remains to be seen if Berube feels similarly. No changes were made to Game 4 forward lines at practice Tuesday.
8. Rodrigues out, Samoskevich in?
Evan Rodrigues was aggressively interfered with by former teammate Oliver Ekman-Larsson in Game 4. The Panthers forward, who had to be helped off the ice, returned to practice Tuesday. Rodrigues hasn't been cleared to play, and a decision on his Game 5 status will come after the morning skate.
Rodrigues is the Panthers' equivalent of McMann: a trustworthy winger who can move up and down the lineup and not look out of place on the second power-play unit. If Rodrigues can't go Wednesday, expect to see more of 22-year-old Mackie Samoskevich, who was scratched for Games 1, 3, and 4.
9. Keep at it, Leafs power play
Toronto's 2-for-15 power play has been a hot topic to start the week.
No need to overthink it, folks: The Leafs must continue to throw five forwards over the boards because their five best offensive players are forwards. They must focus on funneling the puck to either Matthews for one-timers on the right flank or the net-front area where Knies and Tavares love to set up camp.
The penalty kill and goalie Sergei Bobrovsky will break soon enough.
10. No coming back vs. Florida
An amazing tidbit requiring no commentary: Since 2023, the Panthers are 15-0 in the playoffs when leading after one period and 23-0 when leading after two.
John Matisz is theScore's senior NHL writer. Follow John on Twitter (@MatiszJohn) or contact him via email ([email protected]).
