For much of his time with the Toronto Maple Leafs, Auston Matthews has served as something of a Rorschach test for hockey fans.
Those who accept that playoff hockey is a fickle beast - that postseason success is often the result of getting just enough of the 50-50 chances to break your way, and that Matthews is just one of 25 players on a roster - are less likely to hold Matthews' underperformance largely responsible for Toronto's annual spring disappointments.
Those who don't care for such nuance see it in a simpler way: Matthews is an elite goal-scorer during the regular season, and he hasn't been one in the playoffs. Some will go a step further and imagine reasons for the lack of goals: He doesn't care enough; he's unwilling to raise his game to match the intensity of the Stanley Cup Playoffs; he's, gasp, American. Dougie Gilmour didn't have these problems in the postseason!
Funny thing, though: As these playoffs have unfolded, and the Maple Leafs went from a relatively comfortable 4-2 series win over the Ottawa Senators to a decidedly uncomfortable 2-2 second-round split with the Florida Panthers, these two schools of thought on Matthews are starting to converge.
It's not all his fault that the Leafs swooned in Florida, blowing a 3-1 lead to lose Game 3 before being spanked 2-0 in Game 4.
But also: He really needs to start putting the puck in the net.
The 27-year-old's goal-scoring numbers are grim. He's managed two goals in 10 games in these playoffs, and none in four games against the Panthers. He's 0-for-9 in playoff games against Florida, including the Leafs' embarrassing flop in the second round in 2023, right after this group had finally managed a series win. His career goals-per-game in the playoffs has sagged to 0.38 - well below the 0.63 mark he's posted over nine regular seasons, including two when he cracked the 60-goal plateau.
What stands out this season is that Leafs management decided to remove the captaincy from hometown veteran John Tavares and plop it on the chest - and figuratively the shoulders - of Matthews. No longer the first overall draft pick who entered the NHL as a 19-year-old and immediately delivered a 40-goal season, he's now the guy with enough experience to be the face of a franchise, even in an intense hockey market worlds away from his Arizona home.
In a playoff run during which the Leafs are getting major contributions from unlikely sources - four goals from Morgan Rielly, five from ex-captain Tavares - Matthews has been unable to touch his normal levels, let alone raise his game.
The nuance-minded fan can point to a lot of other things that Matthews is doing in these playoffs as proof that the effort is there: He has eight assists, and his 10 points are third on the Leafs behind William Nylander and Mitch Marner. He's winning faceoffs, forcing turnovers, and blocking shots. His line is driving play more than any other Leafs forward line, and he's taking his usual boatload of shots. He leads the team in that category and in shot attempts by a wide margin. None of that suggests he's just floating around without trying to impact the game.
But his shooting percentage this postseason is also a woeful 5.7%, or about a third of his regular-season career average. Some of that is down to luck; some of it is because the Panthers are taking away the proverbial time and space.
But, at some point, a player of Matthews' talent simply has to score more often when it counts the most. His 65 career playoff games should be more than enough to overcome small-sample-size effects. Multi-goal games over that stretch: Three. Hat tricks: Zero. The Leafs are 15-7 when he scores in the playoffs.
In the 2023-24 regular season, Matthews had 18 multi-goal games in 81 outings. (And six hat tricks.) It seems almost statistically impossible that someone with that output and shooting volume hasn't had more scoring outbursts in the postseason.
The Toronto captain has showed up, and he's contributing every night. The Panthers are the defending champions, and they don't make it easy with an excellent defense corps that is big and mobile.
But even Matthews' most ardent defenders must admit that three goals in his last 20 playoff games are just not enough - not for a guy with his scoring bona fides. Not for a player who received the captaincy as a show of management's faith in him. Not for someone with the highest salary in the NHL.
If the Maple Leafs are going to win two of three from the Panthers, they need Matthews to take them there.
Scott Stinson is a contributing writer for theScore.
