Calder Trophy Rankings: Wolf leads the pack

One month later, the Calder Trophy race is still absolutely loaded at the top, though the four-horse race is slowly morphing into a three-horse race.

It's time to assess where things stand as the break for the 4 Nations Face-Off approaches.

5. Leevi Merilainen, Senators

Previous: Unranked

Much like the last edition of these rankings, the No. 5 spot is going to a Calder Trophy long shot who deserves some recognition.

Merilainen was outstanding for the Senators after Linus Ullmark was felled by back tightness in their last game before the holiday break. The 2023 Vezina Trophy winner's absence could have crippled Ottawa's hopes of hanging onto a playoff spot. Instead, the squad charged into third place in the Atlantic Division - with big thanks to Merilainen.

The 22-year-old Finn started a team-leading 10 games after Ullmark's injury, and he owned a 7-2-1 record, a .938 save percentage, and a 1.70 goals-against average over that span.

With Ullmark fully recovered, Merilainen was assigned to the AHL on Sunday, which makes sense despite his strong numbers. The Senators want him playing games in Belleville rather than sitting as Ullmark's backup, and Merilainen doesn't need to clear waivers to be sent down.

4. Matvei Michkov, Flyers

Previous: 3

January was a tough month for Michkov.

He was held without a point in 10 of his first 15 appearances in 2025 and mustered just two goals and three assists total. Despite the slump, Michkov's just five points and two tallies behind the rookie lead, so he could catch up.

What's most concerning here is his playing time. The 20-year-old saw less than 10 minutes in two of his last four games, and his ice time has decreased consistently on a month-by-month basis. He averaged 18:26 minutes in October, 16:15 in November, 15:18 in December, and plummeted to 14:23 in January.

As it stands, the next three rookies on this list have separated themselves from Michkov. His chances of winning the Calder Trophy aren't officially dead in the water, but it'll be harder for the Russian winger to make his case moving forward if things don't turn around for him.

3. Macklin Celebrini, Sharks

Previous: 1

The margins between these next three players are extremely thin.

Celebrini has to be one of the most mature 18-year-olds out there. He's turned heads with his production, but what's equally impressive is his poise. It's easy to forget that he's a rookie when he's making smart decisions on both sides of the puck on a nightly basis. Florida Panthers coach Paul Maurice recently sang Celebrini's praises, saying the rookie "plays like a leader" before adding, "That's the kind of guy that ends up being (Aleksander Barkov)." Comparing him to the captain of the Panthers, a premier center and two-way force, is quite the compliment.

The 2024 first overall pick leads all rookies in goals, even-strength tallies (11), and even-strength points (26), which is even more impressive when considering he missed 12 games at the start of the campaign. Everyone else had a head start and he still caught up.

Celebrini's 0.88 point-per-game rate ranks first in the entire class and translates to a 72-point pace over an 82-game season. It's a shame that he had to miss time, but he's far too good for that to seriously hinder his Calder case.

2. Lane Hutson, Canadiens

Previous: 2

Hutson was nearly a point-per-game player in January: He collected one goal and 12 assists in 14 contests last month, following up a red-hot December in which he also collected nearly a point-per-game with two goals and 11 assists in 14 outings.

That consistency is wild, especially as a rookie defenseman.

Hutson leads the entire rookie class in both assists and points. He's the only first-year player to be seeing more than 20 minutes per night, and he enjoyed a nine-game assist streak in January, which tied Shayne Gostisbehere for the longest such run by a rookie rearguard ever. Of course, he isn't perfect defensively, but he's only 20 years old and this isn't the Norris Trophy.

He's on pace to end the season with around 60 points, and he's going to give voters an awfully hard time if he actually does it. No first-year rearguard has ever hit that mark in the salary-cap era, and Nicklas Lidstrom was the last to do it in 1991-92.

1. Dustin Wolf, Flames

Previous: 4

Awoooooo!

Wolf is largely considered Calgary's most valuable player this season, and the reasoning is obvious. Namely, the Flames are far from offensive juggernauts, ranking 28th in goals per game (2.65) and 18th in expected goals per 60 minutes (2.91). Their ability to win hinges largely on their ability to keep the puck out of their net and, luckily for them, Wolf excels at that.

Wolf has allowed two goals or fewer in 16 of his 30 starts. He owns an unreal .940 save percentage at five-on-five, which narrowly beats Vezina favorite Connor Hellebuyck for the best mark in the league among goalies who have appeared in at least 20 games.

The 23-year-old also sits fourth among all netminders in wins above replacement (3.8), goals above replacement (23.2), and standings points above replacement (7.2). Wolf has a strong chance to be named a finalist for the Calder, but actually winning it is easier said than done. A goalie hasn't taken home the honor since Steve Mason in 2009, but Wolf has certainly done enough to earn the No. 1 spot on these rankings at this point.

Keep an eye on:

• Jackson Blake, Hurricanes
• Jakub Dobes, Canadiens
• Logan Stankoven, Stars

(Analytics sources: Natural Stat Trick, Evolving-Hockey)