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Although the Oilers managed their first non-nail-biter win of their series with the Canucks on Saturday, momentum hasn't carried over from one tilt to the next. Neither team has been able to win consecutive games.
Will that trend change? The betting market thinks so, as the Oilers are a significant favorite for the seventh and final time in this series.
Game 7: Oilers (-160) @ Canucks (+135)
Vancouver has been undervalued in the betting market since losing Vezina Trophy nominee Thatcher Demko after the first game of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The Canucks went 3-2 in games lined close to pick'em, proving to be a profitable bet against the Predators. In Round 2, blindly betting the underdog Canucks six times continued to make backers money.
News broke Sunday of the latest injury twist for the Canucks - their leading playoff goal-scorer, Brock Boeser, is likely out with a blood clotting issue.
When Demko was announced as out, the market dropped the Canucks' chances of winning Game 2 versus the Predators from 60% to 55%. Whether or not that downgrade was warranted, Vancouver lost the game but showed it could still win the series.
After news of Boeser's unavailability, the Canucks' perceived chances took a 3% hit, going from +120 to +135. But will they be able to overcome his absence for one game?
We won't know the answer until Monday night, but we can look at how this series has been played in Vancouver at even strength using expected goals (xG), high-danger chances (HDC), and high-danger goals (HDG).
| TEAM | xG | HDC | HDG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oilers | 5.88 | 27 | 2 |
| Canucks | 6.78 | 26 | 3 |
Unsurprisingly, the numbers are very close in such a tight series.
As for the goaltenders, Stuart Skinner returned to the net in Game 6 and played well, though the Canucks missed several early chances to test him. Meanwhile, Arturs Silovs continued his up-and-down postseason with a GSAx of minus-2.04. Like momentum in this series, his play vacillates nightly.
What might be more predictable is one of the X-factors coming into this series: the Oilers' outrageously efficient power play. After racking up goals in the first few games, Edmonton has gone 0-for-8 in the last two. If that's because the Canucks' coaching staff effectively drilled the team on how to prevent the Oilers from getting their go-to looks, that's a good sign that Game 7 will be won at even strength.
Before the series, we expected this to go seven, betting the Canucks +1.5 games and cashing that ticket with their Game 5 win. Almost anyone holding a ticket on Vancouver to win the series with odds from +220 before the series to +160 midway through is sitting pretty for a game lined shorter than that.
If you don't have a side, with so much uncertainty in net and a series that's been played close to 50-50 including the games in Edmonton (12.7-12.1 even-strength xG), the home underdogs are the only side worth a bet in this winner-take-all showdown.
Best bet: Canucks moneyline (+135)
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
