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During each round of the playoffs, we eventually reach the "housekeeping" portion of the program. Since betting isn't done in a vacuum, we should acknowledge the positions we've previously created in each series to maintain responsible betting practices.
In our Eastern Conference series preview, we played the Hurricanes to beat the Islanders in -1.5 games. With that bet in tow - and two chances for it to cash with series wins of either 4-1 or 4-2 - why would we add a risky -250 moneyline price on the Hurricanes, or bet against ourselves with the Isles?
As for the Western Conference, it certainly wasn't smooth. Then again, we didn't know the Canucks would need three different goalies to get the 3-1 lead we figured they might be good enough to have before Game 5 in Vancouver. We don't have two chances to win a bet here, like with the Canes, but the Canucks are priced at -120 to win a bet we have at +275 odds, plus an in-series bet made at 1-1. It's hard to complain about holding those tickets, regardless of the result.
That leaves two other Tuesday matchups, and we'll apply similar bankroll management logic while working through the handicap for a pair of Game 5s.
Game 5: Maple Leafs (+140) @ Bruins (-165)
We had faith in the Maple Leafs, thinking they could win this series, and if they did, it likely wouldn't happen in Boston in Game 7, so why not take Toronto -1.5 games at a better payout? If you told me Toronto would have the even-strength advantage through four games - 37-26 in high-danger chances and 8.36-7.81 in expected goals - I'd assume the Leafs were at least knotted up at 2-2.
Those numbers - and previous shorter moneylines (+125 and +135) in Boston - suggest there's value on Toronto here. However, that implies full health for Toronto's star players, a willingness to battle, and some strategic or mental edge.
The truth? Without an already sunk cost in the series market, there's no reason to keep be-leaf-in'. The Bruins' moneyline of -165 suggests a 62.3% chance Boston puts Toronto out of its misery. This number seems low based on how the wheels have come off the Maple Leafs, and is definitely low if Auston Matthews can't participate at 100%.
The Bruins haven't been lucky - an 11.5% high-danger chance conversion rate is below the league average. Boston's special-teams advantage isn't likely to be magically flipped either. What should be another turbulent offseason in Toronto starts Wednesday.
Best bet: Bruins moneyline (-165)
Game 5: Avalanche (-125) @ Jets (+105)
While they haven't officially crashed and burned, even the most optimistic Jets bettor can see the writing on the wall. Outside of an atrocious Game 1 from Alexandar Georgiev that gifted Winnipeg a win, it's been a literal avalanche since.
If you ignore the Avalanche's special-teams advantage, they've still driven 59% of even-strength play. Giving Winnipeg a 3.5% bump for home ice would get us to the 55.6% implied win probability the Avs' -125 moneyline suggests. Then apply Colorado's 40% power-play efficiency and a goaltending matchup closer than we ever thought possible, and you're more likely to find value in betting this series to end.
Best bet: Avalanche moneyline (-125)
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
