We're not even two weeks into the 2023-24 NHL campaign and we're already starting to see meaningful shifts in the futures market.
The landscape for the Hart Trophy, in particular, looks quite different than it did to begin the month. Let's take a closer look.
| Player | Oct. 2 odds | Oct. 23 odds |
|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid | +100 | +175 |
| Jack Hughes | +1600 | +350 |
| Auston Matthews | +1100 | +650 |
| Leon Draisaitl | +1400 | +1200 |
| Nathan MacKinnon | +1100 | +1200 |
| David Pastrnak | +2000 | +1600 |
| Matthew Tkachuk | +1300 | +1600 |
| Kirill Kaprizov | +2000 | +2500 |
| Nikita Kucherov | +2200 | +2500 |
| Cale Makar | +3000 | +3000 |
| Mikko Rantanen | +5000 | +3000 |
| Tage Thompson | +3000 | +3000 |
| Connor Bedard | N/A | +4000 |
| Elias Pettersson | +5000 | +4000 |
| Jason Robertson | +3000 | +4000 |
| Ilya Sorokin | N/A | +6000 |
| Kyle Connor | N/A | +6000 |
Note: Only listed players 60:1 or shorter
Connor McDavid is still the favorite to win the Hart, but his implied odds have dropped from 50% to 36.4%. That's a massive change in such a short period of time.
The fact there are 14 players with at least as many points as McDavid is a factor. McDavid getting injured and missing three-to-five games is also a factor. However, the biggest is the play of New Jersey Devils superstar Jack Hughes.
Hughes was one of my best bets to win the Hart Trophy at the beginning of the month. At +1600, the odds implied less than a 6% chance of him taking home the hardware. Fast forward and his chances are nearly four times as high, as Hughes' +350 odds imply a 22.2% chance.
That's an extremely large adjustment, and it was made for good reason. Hughes couldn't have started the season any better, as he has 10 points, all primary, through four games.
Only Alex DeBrincat and Dylan Larkin have more primary points than Hughes. They both sit one ahead, but they've played two more games.
On a per-game basis, nobody has outproduced Hughes. He's averaging more than five shots on goal per contest, creating a ton of offense for his linemates (as evidenced by his six assists), and carrying a McDavid-esque workload, averaging more than 22 minutes a game.
Given the immense talent of the former first overall pick - as well as the crazy usage and strong supporting cast - there's no reason to believe Hughes' outputs are smoke and mirrors.
So long as he stays healthy, he should be one of the league's top scorers on a Devils team expected to contend for a Metro Division title. That'll put him firmly in contention for his first Hart.
Although Hughes is the biggest mover to date, he's not the only one rising up the leaderboard.
A pair of early hat tricks have seen Auston Matthews' odds go from +1100 to +650. Leon Draisaitl has also seen a slight boost. His per-game outputs are actually a little better than McDavid's, and he'll have an extra chunk of games to gain separation.
In terms of fallers, Jason Robertson is the most noteworthy name still on the board. He has just two points through four games (zero goals) and hasn't generated shots or chances at anywhere close to the level we're accustomed to seeing.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @ToddCordell.
