There wasn't much suspense when it came to the divisional slots for the Stanley Cup Playoffs last season. But the wild-card races provided some drama, as two teams in the Eastern Conference missed out by a single point, and two more in the West failed to qualify by two and three points, respectively.
Some of those bubble teams have a legitimate chance to get over the hump in 2023-24, and not every team that snuck into the postseason in 2022-23 is a lock to do so again.
Here are the five teams that are most likely to create playoff chaos, either by taking a step back and concluding their campaigns early or by rejoining the postseason field:
Buffalo Sabres
The Sabres' rebuild is heading in the right direction, and a postseason berth could be a realistic goal for the club in 2023-24. Buffalo was one of those Eastern Conference squads that came up short by a single point after 82 games, so it's entirely conceivable that this up-and-coming team will make it next spring.
This season could be a golden opportunity for the high-flying Sabres to grab a wild-card spot or even a divisional berth, as a couple of longtime powerhouses in the East may have a harder time reaching the postseason than usual. The Boston Bruins got significantly worse over the summer thanks to two big retirements and two impact players exiting in free agency. Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Lightning have to play at least the first two months of the campaign without their stalwart in the crease.
The Sabres could greatly benefit if one or both of those Atlantic Division foes experience a big drop-off in performance. Of course, that may not be all that likely. But even if Boston and Tampa don't slide in the standings, one or both of last season's Eastern Conference wild-card teams could slip up.
That alone would open the door for a talented Buffalo squad that ranked third in the NHL in goals per game in 2022-23. And once the Sabres are in, their skilled youngsters and lower expectations could help them surprise one or more established contenders - including the Bruins and Lightning.
Florida Panthers
Before eliminating the historically dominant Bruins and making it all the way to the Stanley Cup Final, the Panthers scratched and clawed their way into the playoffs by one point as one of the aforementioned wild-card teams in the East. Florida still boasts Hart Trophy finalist Matthew Tkachuk, two-way wizard Aleksander Barkov, and a solid supporting cast including Carter Verhaeghe and Sam Reinhart. However, the Cats will be without key defensemen Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour for at least October.
Given how the standings shook out in 2022-23, every available point is crucial. The Panthers will be forced to trot out the decaying husk of Oliver Ekman-Larsson and reclamation project Mike Reilly while their two integral players on the back end are on the shelf. If Florida loses even one or two more games than expected during this stretch, it could come back to haunt the defending Eastern Conference champions in April.
The Panthers led the NHL in shots on goal and ranked sixth in goals per game last season. They were also a top-five team in terms of expected goals for percentage and scoring chances for percentage at five-on-five. So Florida should once again excel at puck possession and creating scoring chances.
But even so, the margin for error is incredibly thin, and one rough week could be the difference between the Cats making another playoff run and cleaning out their stalls wondering what went wrong.
Pittsburgh Penguins
When the Penguins missed the playoffs for the first time in 17 years this past spring, big changes were inevitable. Pittsburgh fired general manager Ron Hextall and his right-hand man, Brian Burke, replacing them with Kyle Dubas in a dual role. The new boss then made a huge splash by acquiring reigning Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson in a blockbuster three-way trade.
The Pens' aging core should be invigorated by Karlsson's arrival. Even if the 33-year-old regresses as expected following a surprising career year, he gives Pittsburgh another star and a potentially explosive top power-play unit. The Penguins also missed the last postseason by a single point, so the addition of the dynamic defenseman could easily get them back into the picture. This team has more than enough experience with Cup wins and playoff runs to do damage once it gets there, too.
The New York Islanders qualified by two points in 2022-23, claiming the East's top wild-card spot by one point over the Panthers and by two over the Sabres and Pens. But it isn't hard to envision the new-look Penguins leapfrogging their Metropolitan Division counterparts this time around.
Winnipeg Jets
Much like the Panthers in the East, the Jets could stir up some postseason chaos simply by not being a part of the proceedings in the West.
Winnipeg would fall short of the playoffs for the second time in three years if that were to happen - and it's not too far-fetched to imagine. The Jets made it by two points in 2022-23 before the eventual champion Vegas Golden Knights bounced them out of the first round in five games. Winnipeg then traded the disgruntled Pierre-Luc Dubois and bought out declining former captain Blake Wheeler.
During the offseason, it looked like the Central Division squad might engage a full rebuild, as ever-reliable goaltender Connor Hellebuyck and productive center Mark Scheifele - both of whom are now pending unrestricted free agents - were trade candidates. But GM Kevin Cheveldayoff insisted his goal was winning with the dependable duo in the lineup.
That might be possible, particularly if Gabriel Vilardi - who Winnipeg acquired in the Dubois trade - breaks out and helps compensate for the departed forward's absence. But the Jets' return to the dance is by no means a certainty, and that could give another western Canadian squad a shot at redemption.
Calgary Flames
The Flames seem to have just as many things working in their favor as they have working against them as they try to restore their past status as a potential playoff threat. On a positive note, notoriously grating head coach Darryl Sutter is no longer around, and Calgary should play with more freedom under new bench boss Ryan Huska.
This club was also the third-best in the NHL in terms of both xGF% and SCF% at five-on-five in 2022-23. It fired more shots on goal than every team in the league except the Panthers. Calgary simply couldn't win enough close games. The 2021-22 Pacific Division champions dropped the most overtime or shootout contests in the NHL last season, missing the playoffs (while finishing behind the Jets in the overall standings) by two points.
A new head coach and some better luck in tight tilts could get the Flames back on track. Of course, there are also reasons why that might not happen. The biggest of which is they traded away their leading scorer, Tyler Toffoli, in June. Calgary already had issues putting the puck in the net, so players who struggled under Sutter, like Jonathan Huberdeau, will need to rediscover their past elite form. There's also the matter of goaltending, as the previously solid Jacob Markstrom had an atrocious 2022-23 campaign.
But if the 33-year-old can just give the Flames league-average goaltending, they'll have a legitimate shot at returning to the playoffs. Given their success in the puck possession game with largely the same group last season, this is a team that could succeed in the playoffs if it gets there. And that isn't unrealistic, especially considering Winnipeg appears headed in the other direction.
(Analytics source: Natural Stat Trick)
