Justin Jefferson took the least surprising leap in recent memory in 2022. We're not talking about the literal jumping ability that makes him capable of miracle catches like the one he made in Buffalo, but the predictable bump from 1,400 yards in his rookie season, to 1,616 in 2021, to over 1,800 last year and the winning ticket for most receiving yards.
The market for most receiving yards suggests that there are only three receivers with a chance of running with Jefferson. The receiving touchdowns oddsboard indicates that it's far more open since 10 players scored more than he did last season.
Odds to lead NFL in receiving
| PLAYER | YARDS | TOUCHDOWNS |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | +500 | +1100 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | +650 | +650 |
| Tyreek Hill | +850 | +1400 |
| Cooper Kupp | +1000 | +1100 |
| Garrett Wilson | +1600 | +1600 |
| CeeDee Lamb | +2000 | +1600 |
| Stefon Diggs | +2000 | +1100 |
| Davante Adams | +2200 | +1000 |
| A.J. Brown | +2500 | +1000 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | +3000 | +2500 |
| Chris Olave | +3000 | +4000 |
| Jaylen Waddle | +3000 | +2500 |
| DK Metcalf | +3500 | +2200 |
| Travis Kelce | +3500 | +800 |
| Amari Cooper | +4000 | +2500 |
| Calvin Ridley | +4000 | +2500 |
| Keenan Allen | +4000 | +4000 |
| Mike Williams | +4000 | +3000 |
| Tee Higgins | +4000 | +2500 |
| Terry McLaurin | +4000 | +6600 |
| Christian Watson | +5000 | +3300 |
| DJ Moore | +5000 | +5000 |
| Deebo Samuel | +5000 | +10000 |
| Tyler Lockett | +5000 | +4000 |
| Christian Kirk | +6000 | +6000 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | +6000 | +5000 |
| DeVonta Smith | +6000 | +3000 |
| Jerry Jeudy | +6000 | +6600 |
| Jordan Addison | +6000 | +10000 |
| Mike Evans | +6000 | +4000 |
Odds available on theScore Bet, some touchdown scorers not listed above available at 60-1 or longer
Assumptions are being made about Ja'Marr Chase's production since Joe Burrow's the most reliable quarterback throwing to the group at the top of the oddsboard. If he can play all 17 games, Chase is a good bet to continue a pace of 1,500 yards and double-digit touchdowns. However, with other weapons on the Bengals, and a team that should avoid playing from behind in the fourth quarter, there's not enough of a case to bet on a league-leading season from Chase at such short odds.
Speaking of assumptions, the same goes for Garrett Wilson. However, Davante Adams' best season saw him average 97 yards per game with Aaron Rodgers.
Best bets
Tyreek Hill (+850) to lead NFL in receiving yards
Tyreek Hill had 1,632 receiving yards with two games to go despite Tua Tagovailoa missing three games earlier in the season. Unfortunately, Tagovailoa didn't play those final games, either. With Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson at the helm, Hill managed just 78 yards in the last two games. Had he kept up his average of 108 yards per game, he would have finished with 1,849. That's the type of high-end season of which Hill is capable - a second straight season of career-highs in receptions and targets with a healthy Tagovailoa.
CeeDee Lamb (+2000) to lead NFL in receiving yards
CeeDee Lamb (+1600) to lead NFL in receiving touchdowns
If you've been playing along so far this offseason, you know we're on Dak Prescott to lead the league in passing yards and touchdowns, and if CeeDee Lamb leads the NFL in receiving, he'll be a prime candidate for Offensive Player of the Year. At shorter odds than his OPOY payout, a bet here acts as insurance that a monster receiving season won't be topped by a running back or quarterback for that award.
Cooper Kupp (+1100) to lead NFL in receiving touchdowns
Cooper Kupp was Jefferson two years ago - the standout receiver in the league who fell just shy of 2,000 yards. He led the NFL in touchdowns as well. Kupp had 813 yards and six touchdowns before a high-ankle sprain knocked him out for the final nine games.
Fully recovered from that injury, he missed some time in training camp with a hamstring tweak. Given the Rams don't play their veteran stars in the preseason anyway, and Kupp is back at practice two full weeks before the season's start, we won't panic about his health. Instead, we'll play on Kupp being under the radar due to perceived injury risk and the market souring on the Rams.
Truthfully, the L.A. offense wasn't any good before Kupp got hurt last year, but he still scored six times in eight games. He and Matthew Stafford have their goal-line connection down to a point where Kupp should still score at nearly a touchdown-per-game rate, even if no one else on the team does.
Mark Andrews (+2800) to lead NFL in receiving touchdowns
The last time Lamar Jackson was healthy for a full season, Mark Andrews caught 10 touchdowns in 15 games and was one off the league lead in 2019. If you're looking for a long shot in a market with high variance, the Ravens' offense might give Andrews - their leader in receiving touchdowns in three of the last four years - a chance to score 12-14 times. Adams led the league with 14 touchdowns last season.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
