There's no greater recipe for winning Coach of the Year than going 9-7-1 to make the playoffs with a shaky quarterback, all in the biggest pro sports market on the continent. Brian Daboll pulled it off while the betting market refused to catch up. The Giants went 13-4 against the spread without ever having to turn to a backup quarterback - a situation that often artificially lowers a team's rating.
Can the Giants repeat this feat? That cover rate isn't likely, but despite committing to Daniel Jones and avoiding full-on distraction by getting Saquon Barkley signed and into camp, the Giants have gone from an expectation of seven wins up to just 7.5.
2023 season odds
| MARKET | ODDS (O/U) |
|---|---|
| Win total | 7.5 (-105/-115) |
| Division | +900 |
| Conference | +3000 |
| Super Bowl | +6000 |
| Estimated rating | 45/100 |
Despite a season that gave the New York fanbase hope for the future, the Giants have seen their season win total bet down from 8.5 in May to 7.5, which has taken their estimated market rating from right around league-average down to where they're not expected to make the playoffs. With both the Eagles and Cowboys in their way, +900 to win the division still might not be long enough, but the Giants could again be dangerous if they prove last year's wild card was no fluke.
Schedule outlook
| WEEK | OPPONENT | LOOKAHEAD LINE |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | DAL | DAL -3 |
| 2 | @ARI | NYG -4 |
| 3 | @SF | SF -6 |
| 4 | SEA | NYG -1 |
| 5 | @MIA | MIA -4.5 |
| 6 | @BUF | BUF -7 |
| 7 | WSH | NYG -2.5 |
| 8 | NYJ | NYJ -1.5 |
| 9 | @LV | LV -1.5 |
| 10 | @DAL | DAL -5.5 |
| 11 | @WSH | NYG -1.5 |
| 12 | NE | NYG -1.5 |
| 14 | GB | NYG -2.5 |
| 15 | @NO | NO -2.5 |
| 16 | @PHI | PHI -7 |
| 17 | LAR | NYG -3 |
| 18 | PHI | PHI -3 |
One of the big moves in Week 1 point spreads this offseason is the move off of three points in Cowboys-Giants. Dallas is now -3.5, meaning either its rating went up or the Giants' rating went down. Look no further than New York's win total drop to get your answer. It's a prime example of how those two markets are tied together with team ratings as the root.
The Giants face the Eagles twice in the last three weeks of the season. Whether you think there's value on one side or the other, it's pretty clear that home-field advantage is valued at two points each way when a key number isn't being fully crossed.
What's to like about the Giants
The Giants are building continuity, with Jones getting a second season to work with both Daboll and offensive coordinator Mike Kafka behind an offensive line with two recent first-round hits at offensive tackle. The same goes for the defense, with coordinator Wink Martindale in his second season.
In the context of betting, we're always looking for teams, units, or players that the general public doesn't think that much of. Jones' 15 touchdowns last year don't exactly jump off the page, but that only means there's room for improvement, something he's shown in ball protection - lowering his turnover totals in each of his first four seasons.
What's not to like about the Giants
New York made a few tweaks to a defensive group that was 24th in opponent yards per play and whose leader in sacks was nose tackle Dexter Lawrence with 7.5. Pressure will be on Kayvon Thibodeaux - drafted to have more than just four sacks - and a healthy Azeez Ojulari, who played in just seven games last season. While there's room for improvement there, we'll have to see it to believe it.
Jones' 15 touchdowns can be attributed to a lack of downfield playmakers. While adding Darren Waller is exciting, and rookie Jalin Hyatt ran roughly a billion go-routes at Tennessee, the pass-catching group is rife with slot receivers and underneath options.
Other notable betting markets
| PLAYER | MARKET | ODDS |
|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | MVP | +5000 |
| Most passing yards | +6500 | |
| Most passing TD | +10000 | |
| Saquon Barkley | Offensive POTY | +5000 |
| Most rushing yards | +1500 | |
| Most rushing TD | +2000 | |
| Darren Waller | Comeback POTY | +7500 |
| Most receptions | +6500 | |
| Most receiving yards | +15000 | |
| Most receiving TD | +10000 | |
| Jalin Hyatt | Offensive ROTY | +4000 |
| Most rookie receiving yards | +2500 | |
| Deonte Banks | Defensive ROTY | +3000 |
| Kayvon Thibodeaux | Defensive POTY | +5500 |
| Most sacks | +10000 | |
| Brian Daboll | Coach of the Year | +3500 |
The Giants are going to score somehow, but if you just look at their awards and statistical leaders markets, you might doubt that. If the offense is going to run through Barkley, his odds for the rushing title should probably be shorter.
It's telling that the market thinks the Giants' best chance for pass-catching excellence is their tight end. If that's the case, and Waller sees the most looks from Jones, an outlier season where he's the prime red-zone target makes him an interesting long shot to score the most touchdowns in the league.
Winning back-to-back Coach of the Year awards might be among the hardest things to do in sports. In a league full of annual surprises, getting credit for surpassing expectations in two consecutive years - above 31 other teams - is almost impossible. But it helps that the market is still tepid, with the Giants' 7.5 win total.
Sauce Gardner won Defensive Rookie of the Year on two interceptions. His league-leading 20 passes defensed and the New York spotlight got him the award. Deonte Banks could do the same, especially with the presumption that teams will test the rookie early, just as they did with Gardner - who had 12 PD in his first seven games.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
