For the second straight year, the Cowboys' season ended on an ignominious offensive play in a hotly-contested playoff game against the 49ers. At least Dallas got last year's final effort snapped in time. But, in both cases, the Cowboys' lost each game long before the final seconds ticked off the clock.
In 2021, the Cowboys struggled with discipline. They had the most penalties and penalty yards. And, sure enough, 14 penalties for 89 yards burned them in the wild-card round. They cleaned that up last year, but Dak Prescott led the NFL in interceptions during the regular season, only to throw two more in the first half in San Francisco - the first setting up the 49ers for a field goal and the second quelling a Cowboys scoring drive.
Dallas followed up a 13-4 season against the spread with another profitable 9-7-1 record. "America's Team" was still able to outperform the market's opinion of them.
2023 season odds
| MARKET | ODDS (O/U) |
|---|---|
| Win total | 9.5 (-150/+135) |
| Division | +175 |
| Conference | +600 |
| Super Bowl | +1400 |
| Estimated rating | 63/100 |
Dallas sees a little more action on the over at 9.5 wins and gets a bump in the estimated rating because the club plays in the NFC East. Getting 10 wins out of a division shared with Philadelphia and two other playoff contenders would be more impressive than 11 or 12 wins with another team's schedule.
Schedule outlook
| WEEK | OPPONENT | LOOKAHEAD LINE |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @NYG | DAL -3.5 |
| 2 | NYJ | DAL -2.5 |
| 3 | @ARI | DAL -7 |
| 4 | NE | DAL -4.5 |
| 5 | @SF | SF -2.5 |
| 6 | @LAC | LAC -1 |
| 8 | LAR | DAL -7 |
| 9 | @PHI | PHI -3 |
| 10 | NYG | DAL -5.5 |
| 11 | @CAR | DAL -3.5 |
| 12 | WAS | DAL -6 |
| 13 | SEA | DAL -3.5 |
| 14 | PHI | DAL -1 |
| 15 | @BUF | BUF -4 |
| 16 | @MIA | MIA -1.5 |
| 17 | DET | DAL -3.5 |
| 18 | @WSH | DAL -3 |
While crossover matchups with the AFC East and games against the Chargers, Lions, and 49ers are exciting, the Cowboys will measure themselves in Week 9 and Week 14 matchups against the Eagles. That's especially true if Prescott and Jalen Hurts are both healthy for those showdowns this time.
With an estimation of -27 as the highest possible point spread in the modern NFL, the Cowboys' 63/100 rating gives them 17 out of 27 points on that scale. The Eagles - deemed the class of the NFC - are worth 19 for a two-point difference on a neutral field. Philadelphia is projected to be -3 at home in the first matchup as home-field advantage pushes them up, but not through, the key number of three. In the rematch in Dallas, the Cowboys are projected to be the small favorite.
What's to like about the Cowboys
The Cowboys are out from under Ezekiel Elliott's big contract and, other than Dalton Schultz, they didn't lose any top-end talent in their prime. That means Dallas's strong offensive line remains intact - assuming Zack Martin ends his holdout - which makes it easier to get the ball to outstanding playmakers Tony Pollard and CeeDee Lamb.
Stephon Gilmore joins Trevon Diggs to load up an already stacked Cowboys defense. Oh, and we'd call Micah Parsons the best positional player in the league if we knew what specific position the do-everything/play-anywhere star played. Using a first-round pick on Michigan defensive tackle Mazi Smith only shores up the interior.
What's not to like about the Cowboys
Mike McCarthy won the Super Bowl in 2010 but hasn't been back despite coaching Aaron Rodgers and then this Cowboys roster. Now he's calling plays after Kellen Moore became the Chargers' offensive coordinator. An NFL team's offense is only as good as the plays they're calling, and any sort of miscommunication or discomfort isn't going to help Prescott lower his infamous interception total.
Other notable betting markets
| PLAYER | MARKET | ODDS |
|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | MVP | +2500 |
| Offensive POTY | +10000 | |
| Most passing yards | +1300 | |
| Most passing TD | +1600 | |
| Most interceptions | +1000 | |
| CeeDee Lamb | Offensive POTY | +3500 |
| Most receptions | +2000 | |
| Most receiving yards | +2200 | |
| Most receiving TD | +2500 | |
| Tony Pollard | Offensive POTY | +3500 |
| Most rushing yards | +1600 | |
| Most rushing TD | +2500 | |
| Micah Parsons | Defensive POTY | +650 |
| Most sacks | +750 | |
| Mazi Smith | Defensive ROTY | +4000 |
| Mike McCarthy | Coach of the Year | +4000 |
Parsons had 12 sacks in his first 11 games last season, a pace that put him in the mix for both the league lead and Defensive Player of the Year. However, he managed just 1.5 sacks in the final six games. Now in his third campaign, the 24-year-old is a prime candidate to win both with a stronger finish, but the odds reflect that.
Speaking of 24-year-olds, a third consecutive jump of 200+ receiving yards would put Lamb in the same production tier as Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, and Davante Adams, but with a better quarterback than all three.
Most interestingly, Elliott's 12 touchdowns have to go somewhere, and Prescott doesn't move like he once did. Pollard had nine of his own last season so, at 25-1, he's an interesting bet to run the ball to pay the most this year.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
