Before the last drive of a Week 6 Thursday Night Football game against Washington, Justin Fields had yet to run for more than 52 yards in a game last season. The next week, Fields began a stretch where he showed that he was one of the most explosive runners in the league starting with an upset win at New England. The problem the rest of the season - despite weekly highlight reel plays - was that the Bears never won another game, covering just twice in the final ten games.
If the plan was to thrill their fans while losing and, as a result, somehow land the first overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, that is a pretty genius accomplishment. With an exciting, raw prospect at quarterback already, the Bears did the right thing and dealt the pick to Carolina for a massive haul. However, in the immediacy, there's a limit to how much the Bears will reap from that this season.
2023 season odds
| MARKET | ODDS (O/U) |
|---|---|
| Win total | 7.5 (-125/+105) |
| Division | +400 |
| Conference | +3000 |
| Super Bowl | +6000 |
| Estimated rating | 45/100 |
It's hard to say there are high expectations for the Bears when they're tied with Green Bay at the bottom of the NFC North, but going from three wins to eight wins is a really big ask. A team market rating of 45/100 isn't that much higher than where the Bears left off last year - finding themselves in the high-30s weekly through the end of the season. However, their ATS record suggests that they were overrated even at that very modest number.
Schedule outlook
| WEEK | OPPONENT | LOOKAHEAD LINE |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | GB | CHI -3 |
| 2 | @TB | CHI -1.5 |
| 3 | @KC | KC -9.5 |
| 4 | DEN | DEN -1.5 |
| 5 | @WSH | WSH -1.5 |
| 6 | MIN | MIN -1 |
| 7 | LV | CHI -1 |
| 8 | @LAC | LAC -5.5 |
| 9 | @NO | NO -2.5 |
| 10 | CAR | CHI -2 |
| 11 | @DET | DET -5 |
| 12 | @MIN | MIN -3.5 |
| 14 | DET | DET -1.5 |
| 15 | @CLE | CLE -3.5 |
| 16 | ARI | CHI -4.5 |
| 17 | ATL | CHI -2 |
| 18 | @GB | GB -2 |
Like Michael Scott in the offices of Dunder-Mifflin, you're going to have to explain this to me like I'm five: How are the Bears 3-point favorites over the Packers in Week 1? Green Bay and Chicago have the same regular season win total, out of the same division, with equal odds to win the NFC North. Yet the Bears are getting three points of home-field advantage in Week 1?
The Packers are just -2 in the look-ahead point spreads for the Week 18 rematch which means the Bears are being rated better over the course of this season, something I can't agree with just yet.
What's to like about the Bears
As a fifth-round pick, left tackle Braxton Jones' rookie season was a plus for Chicago, and they spent a first-round pick on Darnell Wright with an eye on shoring up the right side. Last year's group opened up enough holes for the David Montgomery/Khalil Herbert combo to run for 1500-plus yards. Montgomery has been swapped out for D'Onta Foreman, another example that the Bears know where to spend their allotted capital.
Not all young NFL quarterbacks on a bad team are afforded the luxury of playing under the same offensive coordinator in their first two seasons, Fields included. With a second year to work with Luke Getsy, there should be an expectation for development in the passing game, especially with the addition of D.J. Moore in the big trade with the Panthers.
What's not to like about the Bears
There's still the matter of a pretty shaky defense. Only the Lions gave up more yards per play than the Bears last season, so their first order of business was to decide on a shift from a 3-4 alignment to a 4-3 with Cover-2 principles. Unfortunately, while he might be available, Brian Urlacher is 45 years old and presumably happily retired.
The Bears didn't light up free agency the way some presumed they might given how much cap space they went into the offseason with. Tremaine Edmunds was their big buy, and he'll rack up tackles but that's just replacing Roquan Smith who did the same for a bad defense the last couple of years.
Other notable betting markets
| PLAYER | MARKET | ODDS |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | MVP | +2000 |
| Offensive POTY | +2000 | |
| Most passing yards | +7000 | |
| Most passing TD | +10000 | |
| Most rushing yards | +3000 | |
| Most quarterback rushing yards | +150 | |
| DJ Moore | Offensive POTY | +10000 |
| Most receptions | +8000 | |
| Most receiving yards | +5000 | |
| Most receiving TD | +6000 | |
| Khalil Herbert | Most rushing yards | +7500 |
| Most rushing TD | +7500 | |
| D'Onta Foreman | Most rushing yards | +15000 |
| Most rushing TD | +10000 | |
| Tremaine Edmunds | Defensive POTY | +20000 |
| Matt Eberflus | Coach of the Year | +1100 |
Per concerns over the defense turning over a new leaf with a Tampa-2 scheme, it's telling that there's no one from Chicago even on the oddsboard in the market for most sacks.
Fields has shorter odds to lead the league in rushing yards than either of his tailbacks, which is due to the likelihood of a carry split in the backfield.
Moore is 80-1 to lead the league in receptions, something he'll need at least 120 catches to do. His career high is 93 receptions, but he's spent his whole career running routes for a QB carousel of Cam Newton, Kyle Allen, Sam Darnold, Teddy Bridgewater, Baker Mayfield, and P.J. Walker. Meanwhile, Fields at least thinks he's capable of a 4000-yard season.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
