For the first time since Don Majkowski got hurt in 1992, the Packers' full-time starting quarterback won't be Brett Favre or Aaron Rodgers. When Favre unceremoniously exited Green Bay after a 13-3 season, the NFL world wondered if the Packers would fall off. They did, going 6-10 in Rodgers' first season as the starter.
Now Rodgers makes his own move to New York with Jordan Love taking over in an eerily similar way, but the 2023 Packers don't have to live up to an NFC title-game appearance the way the 2008 Packers did.
With a playoff spot on the line, the Packers lost a do-or-die home game in the season's final contest, falling to a record of 8-9 both on the field and against the point spread. All their starting quarterback could muster that night was 205 yards with one touchdown and an interception.
When it comes to comparing this coming season with the last season of Rodgers and his 39.3 QBR in Green Bay, the simple question is: Can Jordan Love do that?
2023 season odds
| MARKET | ODDS (O/U) |
|---|---|
| Win total | 7.5 (-115/-105) |
| Division | +400 |
| Conference | +3000 |
| Super Bowl | +6000 |
| Estimated rating | 45/100 |
If the answer is yes to the above question, then logically that should be enough to get over Green Bay's win total of 7.5 and outperform its current slightly below-average rating. If the former first-round pick, who's been studying Matt Lafleur's offense on the sideline for over two years, can do better than that, the other betting markets become a lot more interesting.
Schedule outlook
| WEEK | OPPONENT | LOOKAHEAD LINE |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @CHI | CHI -3 |
| 2 | @ATL | ATL -1.5 |
| 3 | NO | GB -1 |
| 4 | DET | DET -1.5 |
| 5 | @LV | LV -1.5 |
| 7 | @DEN | DEN -3.5 |
| 8 | MIN | MIN -1 |
| 9 | LAR | GB -2.5 |
| 10 | @PIT | PIT -3 |
| 11 | LAC | LAC -2.5 |
| 12 | @DET | DET -4 |
| 13 | KC | KC -5.5 |
| 14 | @NYG | NYG -2.5 |
| 15 | TB | GB -3.5 |
| 16 | @CAR | GB -1 |
| 17 | @MIN | MIN -2.5 |
| 18 | CHI | GB -2 |
You don't need to think the Packers are going to be division contenders to appreciate the possibility that they might be undervalued, and if that's the case, there's a lot of value in the lookahead spreads. The Packers were four-point favorites in the aforementioned Week 18 game against the Lions at Lambeau Field, and we're being told to expect that they'll be home underdogs in a Week 4 rematch. That shows the swing in opinion for both teams with Rodgers gone.
What's to like about the Packers
Covering point spreads is hard when your quarterback is Aaron Rodgers because the betting market is often going to lean in your direction and inflate the line. However, even after an 8-9 ATS season, Lafleur is 40-27 in his career against the number, and he now sees the bar lowered for his team.
Rodgers scooped up his emotional support receivers - Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb - which is great for him but doesn't mean that much for Love. Christian Watson showed signs of potential stardom amongst a young and fast receiving corps. Love will be playing behind a top-10 offensive line if David Bakhtiari can stay healthy and Zach Tom continues to be reliable. Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon get to run behind that group and are very good in their roles.
The hope is that Rashan Gary comes back from his knee injury suffered midway through a season in which the 2019 first-round pick had six sacks in eight-plus games. Green Bay picked Lukas Van Ness in the first round with the hopes he adds to its pass rush. Meanwhile, the Packers boast one of the best cornerback trios in the league.
What's not to like about the Packers
Youth is great until it isn't. From Love to a pair of rookie tight ends, no one in the first column of the Packers' passing-game depth chart is over 24 years old. The lack of experience is certainly concerning, but the potential is high.
Defensively, the Packers should have the talent to be good with a healthy Gary. They didn't make many changes to a group that allowed only four teams to give up more yards per play.
Other notable betting markets
| PLAYER | MARKET | ODDS |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | MVP | +6000 |
| Most passing yards | +5500 | |
| Most passing TD | +6500 | |
| Aaron Jones | Offensive POTY | +10000 |
| Most rushing yards | +3500 | |
| Most rushing TD | +4000 | |
| A.J. Dillon | Most rushing TD | +4000 |
| Christian Watson | Most receptions | +7500 |
| Most receiving yards | +5000 | |
| Most receiving TD | +4000 | |
| Jayden Reed | Offensive ROTY | +10000 |
| Most rookie receiving yards | +2500 | |
| Rashan Gary | Defensive POTY | +5000 |
| Comeback POTY | +7500 | |
| Most sacks | +7500 | |
| Lukas Van Ness | Defensive ROTY | +1500 |
| Coach of the Year | Matt Lafleur | +1500 |
Unless Love blows everyone away with an MVP-candidate season, a good season for Green Bay will probably see a lot of credit going to Lafleur for getting it done without Rodgers. The Packers are +400 to win the NFC North, and if they accomplish that, something really impressive will have to happen for Lafleur to get edged in a Coach of the Year vote - which is a bigger potential win at 15-1.
With few obstacles to playing time and a big price in a market with relatively few competitors, Jayden Reed is an interesting long shot for most rookie receiving yards.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
