So you want to be an NFL head coach, Jonathan Gannon?
Unlike the Texans, who already had their bottoming-out seasons, or the Colts, who dismissed their coach for a half-season unbecoming of a decently talented roster, Gannon gets the job of stewarding the Cardinals through the floor of whatever the Kyler Murray era ends up being.
As far as we know, Murray could be back in late September, or not at all, this coming season. With a pair of highly touted quarterbacks available in next year's draft, if the Cardinals are what the market expects them to be - the worst team in the NFL - Murray may find himself on the other side of a situation in which he was involved when he came into the league.
In 2019, Josh Rosen was thrown aside for first overall pick Murray when Kliff Kingsbury was hired. Now an option exists in which the Cardinals can sit Murray for the year in favor of Caleb Williams or Drake Maye.
Why are we so sure the Cardinals are ready to bottom out? By the end of last season, after quarterbacks Colt McCoy, Trace McSorley, and David Blough all had their turn, Arizona lost seven straight games. To its credit, the team covered the spread in three of those games, thanks to a market rating that dropped into the low 20s, creating manageable point spreads like being 7-point underdogs at Atlanta.
2023 season odds
| MARKET | ODDS (O/U) |
|---|---|
| Win total | 4.5 (-110/-110) |
| Division | +2500 |
| Conference | +10000 |
| Super Bowl | +20000 |
| Estimated rating | 25/100 |
When it comes to the 2023 season, the Cardinals pick up right where they left off. Before its swoon, Arizona had won only four games, and that type of year is right around the median expectation. With the lowest season win total in the league comes the lowest rating. Even before Murray's injury, the Cardinals were looked at as below average with a rating in the low 40s due to a 4-6 start.
Schedule outlook
| WEEK | OPPONENT | LOOKAHEAD LINE |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @WSH | WSH -6 |
| 2 | NYG | NYG -4 |
| 3 | DAL | DAL -7 |
| 4 | @SF | SF -9.5 |
| 5 | CIN | CIN -7.5 |
| 6 | @LAR | LAR -4 |
| 7 | @SEA | SEA -7 |
| 8 | BAL | BAL -5.5 |
| 9 | @CLE | CLE -7 |
| 10 | ATL | ATL -2.5 |
| 11 | @HOU | HOU -1.5 |
| 12 | LAR | LAR -2 |
| 13 | @PIT | PIT -6.5 |
| 15 | SF | SF -6.5 |
| 16 | @CHI | CHI -4.5 |
| 17 | @PHI | PHI -11 |
| 18 | SEA | SEA -4.5 |
The Cardinals aren't projected to be favored in a single game this season. Their prescribed win total of 4.5 gives them a rating of 25/100, or 6.8 points out of a maximum spread of 27 points. In Week 11, they travel to Houston - the projected second-worst team in the NFL. The Texans (33/100) are worth nine points on a 27-point scale. That 2.2-point difference suggests that - if it were Week 1 - the Texans should be favored by at least a field goal. Of course, by Week 11, Murray may be back. The longer the season goes, the higher the Cardinals are rated in their look-ahead game lines.
What's to like about the Cardinals
At 4.5 wins and a rating in the low 20s, there's not much room for the Cardinals to fall. That's bad for Arizona fans but good for the betting outlook. Mix in a new head coach and McCoy's serviceable play in short spurts, and there might be enough energy early on to cover as big underdogs. A big loss in Week 1 and a negative prognosis for Murray's return date, and all of a sudden those games against the Cowboys, 49ers and Bengals become double-digit point spreads, at which point the bar for betting success lowers like it did at the end of last season.
The Cardinals hold the Texans' first-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. This means winning their most winnable game wouldn't be all that bad if they're in the hunt for the first overall pick.
What's not to like about the Cardinals
How much time do you have?
Revamping a terrible offensive line is a good idea. However, when that means you use your first-round pick on a tackle but plan to slot Paris Johnson at guard because you haven't moved on from D.J. Humphries - who you were aiming to replace - it's a less impactful plan. Add in that your new center, Hjalte Froholdt, was a mediocre guard, and your right tackle, Kelvin Beachum, was born in the '80s, and we shouldn't be all that hopeful for a turnaround in protection and gaping holes for the runners.
Gannon's bag is defense, but he won't have the same talent he worked with in Philadelphia as the defensive coordinator. That type of situation crushes more new head coaches in their first year than not. Zaven Collins - drafted as a linebacker - is on the depth chart as a 3-4 defensive end, while Isaiah Simmons has never quite panned out. Maybe Gannon can unlock those players and new weak-side linebacker B.J. Ojulari, but without much support elsewhere in front of star safety Budda Baker, that seems highly unlikely.
Other notable betting markets
| PLAYER | MARKET | ODDS |
|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | MVP | +15000 |
| Comeback POTY | +7500 | |
| James Conner | Most rushing yards | +4500 |
| Most rushing TD | +3500 | |
| Marquise Brown | Most receptions | +8000 |
| Most receiving yards | +10000 | |
| Most receiving TD | +6000 | |
| Budda Baker | Defensive POTY | +20000 |
| B.J. Ojulari | Defensive ROTY | +4500 |
| Jonathan Gannon | Coach of the Year | +3500 |
This is grim. I don't know what Baker - the Cardinals' best player - would have to do to score the Defensive Player of the Year, but cartwheels, back-flips, and maybe morphing into a T-Rex might be involved.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
