If you didn't read or hear about Mike Tomlin and the Steelers' streak of finishing above .500 going into last season, you obviously didn't read or hear anything about the Steelers.
The streak was relevant not only because it was the season after the Ben Roethlisberger era ended but because eight wins would be good enough to cash season win total overs for Pittsburgh bettors in 2022. Sure enough, the Steelers kept the streak alive, going 9-8 and 10-6-1 against the spread.
There were two personnel issues that potentially prevented the Steelers from returning to the playoffs.
The first was something we expected. Whether it was journeyman Mitch Trubisky or rookie Kenny Pickett, quarterback play was always going to be inconsistent. Secondly, reigning Defensive Player of the Year T.J. Watt almost single-handedly beat the Bengals in the opener but came out of Week 1 with a torn pectoral. When he returned, Pittsburgh went 7-2 to close the season. A 1-6 record without Watt illuminates his importance.
2023 season odds
| MARKET | ODDS (O/U) |
|---|---|
| Win total | 8.5 (-145) |
| Division | +500 |
| Conference | +3000 |
| Super Bowl | +5000 |
| Estimated rating | 55/100 |
While the Steelers' win total has stayed at 8.5, enough bets have been made on the streak continuing to move the price on the over from +100 (49% average win probability) to -145. Add in a 7% bump for playing in the deepest division in the league, and the Steelers' rating goes from 49 on May 10 to 55/100 two months later without anything newsworthy happening in Pittsburgh.
Schedule outlook
| WEEK | OPPONENT | LOOKAHEAD LINE |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | SF | SF -3 |
| 2 | CLE | PIT -1 |
| 3 | @LV | PIT -1.5 |
| 4 | @HOU | PIT -3.5 |
| 5 | BAL | BAL -1 |
| 7 | @LAR | PIT -2 |
| 8 | JAX | PIT -1 |
| 9 | TEN | PIT -4 |
| 10 | GB | PIT -3 |
| 11 | @CLE | CLE -1.5 |
| 12 | @CIN | CIN -4.5 |
| 13 | ARI | PIT -6.5 |
| 14 | NE | PIT -2 |
| 15 | @IND | PIT -2.5 |
| 16 | CIN | CIN -2.5 |
| 17 | @SEA | SEA -2.5 |
| 18 | @BAL | BAL -3.5 |
The Steelers are currently projected to be favored in 10 games, but only once would they be -200 or higher on the moneyline. In a division with the Bengals, Ravens and Browns, Pittsburgh is fortunate that its non-divisional matchups are favorable, as the team crosses over with the AFC South and NFC West.
What's to like about the Steelers
The prospect of a healthy Watt and the expectation of more consistently good quarterback play should attract Steelers backers.
In this space before last season, we hypothesized that Trubisky and/or Pickett could provide similar play to Roethlisberger's final season of 6.2 yards per attempt and 22:10 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and if that happened then the Steelers should maintain the level they've grown accustomed to. Steelers quarterbacks ultimately threw for 11 touchdowns and 14 interceptions in 2023 and, incredibly, still won nine games. Pickett's the unquestioned starter in Year 2 and actually finished his rookie year with a top-15 passer rating.
Either via the draft or free agency, the Steelers routinely make quality moves to add enough supporting pieces to stay competitive.
What's not to like about the Steelers
The Pickett-to-George Pickens connection might rise up a notch or two this season, which would be quite the development for the two second-year players who are expected to carry the offense. It's especially important given offensive coordinator Matt Canada isn't known for being an avant-garde play-caller. Apparently, a vanilla, run-first offensive scheme is a directive from above, but that means the playmakers have to make an inordinate amount of plays by winning their matchups. This ties a collective hand behind the back of the unit compared to the other NFL offenses that do a better job of scheming players open.
Other notable betting markets
| PLAYER | MARKET | ODDS |
|---|---|---|
| Kenny Pickett | MVP | +4500 |
| Offensive POTY | +10000 | |
| Most passing yards | +6000 | |
| Most passing TD | +8000 | |
| Najee Harris | Offensive POTY | +5000 |
| Most rushing yards | +3000 | |
| Most rushing TD | +2200 | |
| George Pickens | Offensive POTY | +13000 |
| Most receptions | +7500 | |
| Most receiving yards | +8000 | |
| Most receiving TD | +6000 | |
| Darnell Washington | Offensive ROTY | +6000 |
| Joey Porter Jr. | Defensive ROTY | +2500 |
| T.J. Watt | MVP | +20000 |
| Comeback Player of the Year | +3500 | |
| Defensive POTY | +850 | |
| Most sacks | +850 | |
| Alex Highsmith | Most sacks | +4000 |
| Mike Tomlin | Coach of the Year | +2500 |
As long as the Steelers treat offensive pace the way they do, there's no need to look at the passing game for any sort of long-shot play. Najee Harris should have more than enough opportunity to rack up big numbers, but the Steelers would need some of their four offensive line additions to be upgrades over last year's unit - particularly 14th overall pick Broderick Jones usurping Dan Moore at left tackle.
Pittsburgh would probably have to surpass the other three teams in the division just to catch voters' attention for Tomlin's Coach of the Year candidacy. Still, I prefer that bet versus a flyer on the Steelers to win the AFC at similar odds since they likely need to not just win the division but also be better than the numerous other contenders in the conference.
Watt already "came back" last year, so a bet in that market makes no sense, but whether it's Defensive Player of the Year or most sacks, +850 is a decent price on someone who's only ever been awesome when able to play.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
