When thinking about the Baltimore Ravens, it's important to parse the difference between the team with Lamar Jackson and without him. Of course, predicting whether Baltimore's star quarterback will make it to the end of the season - after playing just 12 games in each of the last two seasons - is merely a guess.
In the Wild Card round, after it became clear that Jackson wasn't going to be ready for the playoffs, the Bengals were pushed out beyond a converted touchdown favorite. The Ravens had the game all but won until Tyler Huntley fumbled and Sam Hubbard rumbled the length of the field to go up seven points - instead of going down that same margin - against a team that held Cincinnati to 4.8 yards per play.
The Ravens missed the playoffs in 2021 because their defense was just as ravaged by injury as Jackson was, and 2022 showed they could stay afloat by allowing between three and 16 points, as they went 3-2 without him to clinch a playoff spot before Week 18. Their four losses with Jackson at the helm all featured blown leads of more than one score. Never considered a contender without Jackson, the Ravens may be under the radar this year with him healthy.
2023 season odds
| MARKET | ODDS (O/U) |
|---|---|
| Win total | 9.5 (-150) |
| Division | +250 |
| Conference | +1200 |
| Super Bowl | +1800 |
| Estimated rating | 64/100 |
Before Jackson got hurt last year, the Ravens were rated in the high 50s, and they dropped to the low 40s when Huntley was under center. The Ravens are expected to combine Jackson's availability and strong play from the first half of 2022 with the defense that stepped up in the latter part of the season in order to meet an estimated rating of 64 out of 100 in the market. There is enough room, as a fringe Super Bowl contender, for Baltimore to outperform this rating.
Schedule outlook
| WEEK | OPPONENT | LOOKAHEAD LINE |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU | BAL -9 |
| 2 | @CIN | CIN -3.5 |
| 3 | IND | BAL -7 |
| 4 | @CLE | CLE -1 |
| 5 | @PIT | BAL -1 |
| 6 | @TEN* | BAL -5.5 |
| 7 | DET | BAL -3 |
| 8 | @ARI | BAL -5.5 |
| 9 | SEA | BAL -3 |
| 10 | CLE | BAL -3 |
| 11 | CIN | CIN -1 |
| 12 | @LAC | LAC -2 |
| 14 | LAR | BAL -6.5 |
| 15 | @JAX | JAX -1 |
| 16 | @SF | SF -3 |
| 17 | MIA | BAL -1 |
| 18 | PIT | BAL -3.5 |
*Neutral site game in London
Before we even get to the regular season, we're reminded that John Harbaugh's Ravens have a 23-game preseason winning streak. Do what you may with that information.
The Ravens are going to be a very popular survivor pick in Week 1. On top of currently being the biggest favorite of the week, a game with the Texans at home is projected to be the highest point spread of the season for Baltimore. The Ravens are back in Cincinnati in Week 2, facing a spread 4.5 points lower than on Wild Card Weekend thanks to Jackson's expected availability.
What's to like about the Ravens
We saved something of a key note when it comes to the Ravens going from bad to good on defense midway through the season - the trade for Roquan Smith. It can't be a coincidence that Baltimore gave up over 20 points per game before Smith joined the team and just 13.1 in eight meaningful games with him.
We also discussed Jackson's importance, but if the Ravens can have a dominant tailback tandem - with J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards healthy - that will help new offensive coordinator Todd Monken do what he did at Georgia. That is to say, the team will confuse defenses and create open receivers and running lanes - particularly for the quarterback.
What's not to like about the Ravens
Honestly, there's not much to dislike about the Ravens beyond concerns about Jackson's ability to stay healthy and a division that includes one of the best teams in the league in Cincinnati, along with a pair of pretty good teams in Cleveland and Pittsburgh.
If we were picking nits, the addition of Odell Beckham might be a tad overrated. After all the workouts and rumors of getting signed for a playoff run last year, a one-year deal suggests that evaluators might not be fully buying in. What's not to love about Zay Flowers? I guess that he's a rookie and may not light it up instantly, as rookie receivers rarely do. That leaves a lot of the heavy lifting to Rashod Bateman, who's coming off a dreaded Lisfranc injury. But as usual, the Ravens were active in addressing a positional weakness.
Other notable betting markets
| PLAYER | MARKET | ODDS |
|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | MVP | +1500 |
| Offensive POTY | +2200 | |
| Comeback POTY | +2500 | |
| Most passing yards | +4000 | |
| Most passing TD | +4500 | |
| Most rushing yards | +5500 | |
| Most rushing TD | +5000 | |
| J.K. Dobbins | Offensive POTY | +7500 |
| Comeback POTY | +4000 | |
| Most rushing yards | +3500 | |
| Most rushing TD | +5000 | |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | Offensive POTY | +10000 |
| Comeback POTY | +4500 | |
| Most receiving yards | +13000 | |
| Most receiving TD | +4000 | |
| Rashod Bateman | Most receiving yards | +8000 |
| Most receiving TD | +15000 | |
| Mark Andrews | Most receiving yards | +10000 |
| Most receiving TD | +6000 | |
| Most receptions | +6500 | |
| Zay Flowers | Offensive ROTY | +1800 |
| Offensive POTY | +8000 | |
| Most receiving yards | +13000 | |
| Most receiving TD | +10000 | |
| Roquan Smith | Defensive POTY | +3500 |
| Kyle Hamilton | Defensive POTY | +15000 |
| John Harbaugh | Coach of the Year | +3000 |
A full season for Smith might mean he piles up tackles in a Ray Lewis-like way. On the back end, he won't win the award, but Kyle Hamilton graded out as the top safety in the league, so why can't he be in the mix as a top defensive player in his second season?
I'm also ready to believe anything when it comes to Jackson awards and accolades.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
