Of all the first-round successes we had, nothing worked better than hopping on a handful of teams after they were downed in Game 1. We went 4-1 for approximately plus-4 units, with just the long shot try on the Islanders falling short, thanks to a pair of overtime losses.
Overall, the team that lost the first game of the series went 6-2, with just the Kraken (who later trailed 2-1) and Hurricanes eventually closing their opponents out after leading 1-0.
So is it as simple as just backing the team down 0-1 to go on to win the series? No, not usually. That's why we picked our spots in Round 1. However, with all four pre-series favorites losing in Game 1 of Round 2, taking the trailing team is that much more appealing.
Instead of the article ending there, we'll actually rank each series by just how interested we are in a position for a comeback. In honor of both Joe Pavelski and Leon Draisaitl scoring four times - albeit in losing causes - we'll rank them by "goals."
*4 goals*
Oilers to win series (+120)
At least the Oilers lost the first game on the road. The advantage to not having home-ice advantage is that it's no catastrophe to go down 0-1 in the other team's barn - or should I say, "palatial concert venue?"
Edmonton was given a 60% implied win probability for this series before it started based on a -150 series price. Converting +120 into probability gives you 45.5%. That near 15% change is too high of a gap for my liking, as I've already jumped on Edmonton at the best price I can find for Game 2. In fact, that moneyline seems destined to close higher than the Oilers' odds to win Game 1.
Once Edmonton takes Game 2, its series odds won't just revert back to -150, they'll likely go higher after the Oilers have wrestled away home-ice advantage. As for Game 1, while the Golden Knights get credit for having the marginally better expected-goal share at even strength, Vegas converted two of just seven high-danger chances in that game state on top of two of four power-play chances. Those are two outlier events that'll be hard to repeat, especially if both are required to win by just one goal.
*3 goals*
Stars to win series (-115)
We sniffed out a potential over-pricing on the Stars before Game 1, advocating to take the Kraken +1.5 for the series in a way of finding a middle ground between having a position on Dallas to take the Western Conference and taking advantage of some obvious value.
However, we're still all Stars around here. Jake Oettinger has earned a pass for whatever that was in the first period of Game 1. The Kraken had two high-danger chances in the opening stanza but scored four even-strength goals. Yikes. Oettinger cleaned it up the rest of the way, with the Seattle game-winner coming in an overtime frame where Dallas was the better side. Throw in Pavelski - not only back and healthy but scoring four times - and that actually alleviates one of the worries about the long-term viability of Dallas.
So why not a "four-goal certified play?" Price matters around these parts, and oddsmakers are sticking to their pre-series (over)valuations by making Dallas 53.5% to win the series, just a 12% change from -190 before the series.
*2 goals*
Devils to win series (+140)
The first period in Raleigh wasn't pretty for the Devils; there's no denying that. It fed into the narrative that a team who played the game of its life on Monday night had too quick of a turnaround before a road series opener, with the ideally-rested Hurricanes trying to smother their speed.
The least predictable type of goal for handicapping is the "soft" goal, and Brett Pesce's seeing-eye wrister to open the scoring was no high-danger chance. Throw in three goals on nine HDCs - a 33% clip far exceeding Carolina's usual 9% conversion rate of the last two months - and you have another dual-outlier night.
The Devils will be better - as they were in periods two and three - and a 13% change in win probability is enough to keep us interested in a team we liked before the series.
*1 goal*
Maple Leafs to win series (+100)
We were on the Panthers in Game 1 and for the series, so there's no flip-flopping now. The thought process was that this was far more of a coin-flip series than the pre-series odds suggested. The Maple Leafs may have felt like the better team in the opener, but 50% splits in expected-goal share and high-danger chances at even strength confirm that they aren't better enough to be 63.6% probable to win the series and even higher than that to win Game 1.
As a result, a 13.6% drop to their win probability puts them at even money to win the series, a price that might be enticing to some based on how Round 1 shook out and the Leafs being a significant favorite to salvage a split. However, it's only worth a tertiary glance for those with Panthers positions.
Matt Russell is the Lead Betting Analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
