We finished last week on a high note, backing the Islanders to take Game 3 while splitting player props.
We'll set our sights higher and aim for a 3-0 night with three plays for Monday's slate of games.
Devils (+130) @ Rangers (-150)
The Devils were able to grind out a crucial overtime win in Game 3. While there didn't appear to be much separating the two, the Devils quietly took over at five-on-five.
With the aid of overtime, a whopping 56 minutes was played at full strength. New Jersey won the high-danger chance battle 15-5 in those minutes.
The Devils did a much better job of generating offense off the rush and using their team speed. Akira Schmid also gave them a much-needed boost in goal, coming up with plenty of big stops when needed.
In aggregate, the Devils have controlled more than 55% of the expected goal share at five-on-five. The Avalanche are the only other playoff team that can say that.
The problem is they've scored on 1.47% of their shots in that game state, while the Rangers have converted on close to 10%.
As good as Igor Shesterkin is, he's not going to continue stopping 98.5 of every 100 shots at five-on-five.
People forget the Devils went 3-0-1 against the Rangers during the regular season and had much better underlying numbers - head-to-head and over the course of the year.
The Rangers closed -110 in their last home game against the Devils during the regular campaign. I think we have seen way too big of an adjustment made through three games in this series.
Back the Devils to even things up.
Bet: Devils (+130)
Nikita Kucherov over 3.5 shots (+105)
Kucherov is very consistent on home ice. He has recorded four shots or more in 57% of his home games this year, a stark contrast from his 33% success rate on the road.
He's been teeing off in the series thus far, leading the Lightning with 28 shot attempts through three games. Nobody else on the roster has even reached 20.
Kucherov hit his total in two of the first three playoff games, coming one short in the lone exception. That was the game the Maple Leafs recorded a blowout win, and Kucherov's ice time was cut accordingly.
Given what we've seen all year, it should be no surprise Kucherov had his best game in Tampa Bay. He piled up 13 attempts and six shots on goal in Game 3.
With the Lightning in desperate need of a win - going down 3-1 heading back to Toronto would be less than ideal - I think they'll be spoon-feeding their star winger all the ice he can handle in Game 4.
Expect him to take advantage.
Mitch Marner over 2.5 shots (-120)
Marner has enjoyed a lot of shooting success versus the Lightning this season. He has averaged 7.4 shot attempts through five head-to-head meetings and recorded three shots or more in four of them.
Five attempts was the lowest output from Marner in any game against the Lightning. That's sort of a key number for him in terms of finding success shooting the puck.
Playoffs included, Marner has recorded five attempts or more on 45 different occasions this year. He went over his shot prop in 30 of them, good for a healthy 67% success rate.
Marner plays a ton in all situations, and this is a big swing game for the series. With a win, the Maple Leafs can put the Lightning in an extremely bad spot. With a loss, it's back to square one.
So long as this contest is remotely close, Marner should log a huge workload - likely 22-plus minutes. That should be more than enough time to get the job done.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
