The Lightning punched back Thursday in Toronto, winning Game 5 by a 4-2 score to send their first-round series against the Maple Leafs back to Tampa Bay. Tensions are palpably high ahead of Game 6. Since 2018, the Leafs are now 0-10 with a chance to close out a series. The Lightning, meanwhile, still need to pull off back-to-back wins. Here are six players primed to swing the rest of the series.
Ilya Samsonov
In the second period of Game 5, Samsonov slid into his right goal post with an awkward posture and stance. The Maple Leafs goaltender's five-hole open, he whiffed on Mikey Eyssimont's very savable, bad-angle shot, and all of a sudden, the score was 2-1 for Tampa.
Goalies let in bad goals every once in a while. It's part of the gig.
Yet Samsonov's problem in this series is that the odd bad goal has been accompanied by a long reel of shaky moments. The 26-year-old Russian had issues controlling rebounds throughout Game 1. He looked less busy the next time out, stood on his head at times in Game 3, and was decent in Game 4. On Thursday, he was back to swimming in his crease, flailing everywhere, and he seemed to have problems catching the puck with his glove.
For the series, Samsonov owns an .886 save percentage and a minus-5.06 goals saved above expected rating, according to Sportlogiq. Andrei Vasilevskiy, Samsonov's counterpart and arguably the best goalie of his generation, has even worse numbers - an .870 SV% and a minus-6.09 GSAx rating.
Given Vasilevskiy's strong Game 5 and career-long dominance in elimination games, the pressure is on Samsonov to elevate his performance and provide a sense of calm. The Leafs need competent goaltending in Game 6 - and, if necessary, Game 7 - to finally move on to the second round.
Nikita Kucherov
Over the past six regular seasons, Connor McDavid is the only player with a higher points-per-game average than Kucherov. In the playoffs over the same period, Kucherov ranks third in points per game among players who've appeared in at least 50 games and first in total points with 118 in 96 games.
This rock-star level of production has eluded Kucherov in the first round. Sure, he leads Lightning players in scoring, but his counting stats through five games are nothing special - one power-play goal, three power-play assists, and two even-strength assists. Noticeably absent: five-on-five goal-scoring.
Kucherov and linemates Brayden Point and Steven Stamkos have seen a ton of Toronto's shutdown defensemen, Jake McCabe and T.J. Brodie. The Lightning have generated 96 shot attempts to the Leafs' 73 in Kucherov's 78 five-on-five minutes. The high-danger attempt tally is 18-18. Goals are 4-4.
So, to be fair, it's not as if Kucherov's been completely underwhelming. You just want more from the 2019 Hart Trophy winner. Kucherov's off-the-charts hockey IQ leads to such deceptive, creative playmaking. He's a dual threat with that nasty one-timer. And he doesn't back down from physical contact.
The Lightning could use a jolt from Point and Stamkos, too. Four total goals from the line - which is as star-studded as any in the playoffs - isn't enough.
Auston Matthews
Matthews is at his best when he's assertive. You can tell he's in "beast mode" if he's carving up the neutral zone with purposeful strides, puck on his stick.
We've seen that version of Matthews sprinkled throughout the series, notably in Game 4, where he launched a three-goal comeback with a pair of prototypical tallies (a catch-and-release snipe off an odd-man rush, then a nifty deflection after getting lost in the offensive zone). He was also dangerous in Game 5, buzzing all night, especially off the cycle, and potting his fourth goal.
Something to monitor: While Matthews has recorded 39 shot attempts, only 20 have made it to Vasilevskiy. Tampa Bay's defenders have blocked nine, while Matthews has missed the net 10 times - one crossbar, two too high, and seven wide (including a couple off good power-play looks in Game 5).
Elite goal-scorers won't register a shot on goal every time, but Matthews' success rate so far could certainly be higher.
Why is he better primed to swing the series than running mate Mitch Marner (tied for the league lead in playoff points), longest-tenured Leaf Morgan Rielly (clutch all series), or any other star-caliber Leaf? Because when he's assertive, nobody can take over a single game like No. 34.
Anthony Cirelli
Straight up, the Lightning would be playing 18 holes on Friday if not for Cirelli.
On a micro level, his goal in Game 5 that came 26 seconds after the Leafs opened the scoring kept the Lightning alive. On a macro level, he and linemates Alex Killorn and Brandon Hagel have done a bit of everything through five games.
Cirelli, a Selke Trophy candidate every season, has logged the sixth-most five-on-five minutes among Tampa Bay's forwards. Yet the assignment has been laborious, since his most common opponents - Matthews and Marner - can torch you.
The results thus far: Tampa holds a 4-3 edge in goals and a 37-29 advantage in shots on goal in Cirelli's 71 minutes. Oh, and three of those four Lightning goals came off Cirelli's stick. He leads the entire squad in five-on-five markers.
Killorn - who's tied with Matthews and Point for the series lead in Sportlogiq's "quality chances" metric with 10 - has quietly racked up three goals. Hagel's bagged one himself. As a group, the Cirelli line has snuck seven past Samsonov, which is also the combined total from the rest of Tampa's top nine.
Cirelli's impact on Tampa Bay's neutral-zone defense cannot be overstated either. He embodies exactly what coach Jon Cooper wants out of his forwards: pressure, pressure, pressure. And although the Leafs have buried six power-play goals on 19 opportunities (31.6%), Cirelli hasn't suddenly lost his penalty-killing prowess. The Toronto native will remain a factor in that area.
Matthew Knies
It sure feels like Knies, the 20-year-old who doesn't look fresh out of college, is destined to score a goal before this series ends. Since drawing into the lineup for Game 2, he's improved every time out. At no point has the moment looked too big for him - a huge development for the Leafs.
The left winger has deployed his 6-foot-2, 210-pound frame to outmuscle Tampa defenders en route to the net. He's flashed his playmaking skills with different linemates. No red flags have popped up on defense, either, with his short playoff reel featuring a handful of impressive backchecking sequences.
Toronto coach Sheldon Keefe loves the kid. He's given him a nightly workload of 14:36 - including 13:28 at five-on-five, the sixth-highest among Leaf forwards - and praised him during press conferences. Knies, who's earned two assists and three inner-slot shots, was on the ice for both overtime goals. Overall, the team has outscored Tampa 5-1 with the ex-Minnesota Golden Gopher between the boards.
Knies' role should only increase in Game 6, providing him with additional opportunities to find the back of the net. Barring something unforeseen, he's a permanent fixture in Keefe's lineup - something you can't say about veterans Michael Bunting or Justin Holl, who have both struggled in different ways so far.
Victor Hedman
Hedman's performance has been equal parts surprising and unsurprising.
He's a future Hall of Famer whose career is filled with dominant games and series, so, on one hand, expecting anything less would be foolish. Then again, Hedman's regular season was subpar by his lofty standards, and he suffered an injury early in Game 1 that sidelined him until Game 3. He's clearly not 100%, and expecting a tour de force would be unreasonable.
Yet, here we are ahead of Game 6 and Hedman's body of work jumps off the page: three assists (two primary) and the Lightning outscoring the Leafs 7-3 and controlling play to the tune of a 67.8% expected goals rate with Hedman on the ice at five-on-five. Not bad for a hobbling 32-year-old who leads the NHL in playoff minutes logged since 2013-14 (3,568 in 141 games).
All of this should be excellent news for the Lightning - except it seems as though Hedman is dangerously close to being too hurt to play, or at least too hurt to be highly effective. The Sportsnet broadcast showed a wincing Hedman frantically calling for the trainer during Game 5. He isn't doing well.
The positive angle on this is that Tampa has the last change Saturday. Cooper has done a solid job of keeping Hedman away from Toronto's big guns up front and can double down on that strategy as the home team.
John Matisz is theScore's senior NHL writer. Follow John on Twitter (@MatiszJohn) or contact him via email ([email protected]).
