NHL Monday best bets: Expect fireworks in Edmonton
We have a fun six-game slate in the NHL to begin the week. Let's take a look at three bets that stand out.
The two sides have met three times this calendar year. All three games went over the total of 6.5, with an average of eight goals.
I expect the scoring parade to continue. Although several key players are sidelined (Nicklas Backstrom, Tom Wilson, Evander Kane, etc.), each side still possesses plenty of firepower.
Alexander Ovechkin, John Carlson, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Co. are capable of breaking games open and piling up the points on any given night.
Based on each team's inability to keep the puck out of the net of late, there's every reason to believe offense can reign supreme. The Capitals and Oilers have each conceded at least 3.40 goals against per 60 minutes over the last 10 games.
Washington's penalty-kill metrics have not been good recently, and that's never an encouraging sign heading into a game against Edmonton. Neither is the likelihood of playing without starting goaltender Darcy Kuemper, who owns a rock-solid .916 save percentage on the year.
On the flip side, Stuart Skinner has conceded at least three goals in five consecutive starts for Edmonton, and he is the "in form" goaltender on the roster.
With so much high-end talent, a pair of dangerous power plays, and struggling or injured goaltenders, this game has all the makings of another high-scoring affair.
Bet: Over 6.5 (-110)
Connor McDavid over 3.5 shots (-130)
McDavid has generated shots at a healthy, and consistent, rate all season long. Through 25 games, McDavid has hit the over 16 times, good for a 64% success rate. He has been especially efficient at home, where he has registered four shots or more just under 70% of the time.
With Kane out of the lineup, there are more shots to go around for Edmonton's key forwards. McDavid has picked up a lot of that slack, piling up 61 shot attempts and 40 shots on goal over the last 10 games. Both of those marks lead the Oilers.
His shooting success should continue against a Capitals side that has quietly been giving up a lot of rubber. At five-on-five, only seven teams have conceded shot attempts at a higher clip over the past 10 games.
With McDavid consistently threatening to go over the total - and the Capitals struggling to limit shots - this is a more than fair price to back the league's most dynamic player.
Elias Lindholm over 2.5 shots (-132)
The Arizona Coyotes are always a team you want to target for shot props. They get outpossessed and outplayed almost every single night, which leads to a lot of shooting opportunities for opponents.
Elias Lindholm is perhaps the most likely player on the Calgary Flames to take advantage. He leads the Flames in shots over the last 10 games and is nipping at Nazem Kadri's heels for the lead in attempts.
Lindholm has gone over 2.5 shots seven times in that span. Of the three exceptions, he came just one shot shy in two. He is always right there.
The Swedish pivot does his best work at home - he's gone over in five of his last six games in Calgary - and enjoyed plenty of success against the Coyotes last season, generating 11 shots on target over three games.
Look for that to continue Monday night.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.