NHL weekend best bets: Flames to heat up vs. Jets
We have another full weekend of hockey ahead, with 17 games scheduled over the next couple of nights.
Let's dive into a couple that stand out from the rest with a pair of best bets.
Sharks (+170) @ Stars (-200)
Nov. 11, 8:30 p.m. EST
The Dallas Stars and San Jose Sharks both played in a lot of games that have gone over the number of late. I expect them to buck that trend Friday night.
Pete DeBoer-coached teams are generally strong defensively, and the Stars certainly have the personnel needed to be solid in that area. They rank in the top half of the league at five-on-five when it comes to limiting expected goals against this season.
Believe it or not, San Jose grades out even better defensively across all game situations. It ranks seventh in high-danger chances allowed this season and has some of the best penalty-killing metrics in the league.
I don't see these two sides trading chances, and even if they do, the goaltending should be good enough to keep things on the rails.
Scott Wedgewood versus James Reimer isn't exactly a pay-per-view matchup on the surface, but both are performing quite well this year.
Wedgewood stopped 2.4 goals above expected through seven appearances, while Reimer enters play at 3.9 goals saved above expected.
It's also worth noting that previous matchups between these two sides have been rather uneventful; three of the previous four meetings featured three or fewer goals combined. That's not just because of goaltending, either. Only once did either team crack 30 shots on goal.
Although new coaches are in charge, the cores from the last couple of seasons are largely similar.
If we can get similar volume again in this one, the game should stay under the number.
Bet: Under 6 (-110)
Jets (TBD) @ Flames (TBD)
Nov. 12, 10 p.m. EST
This is a fun matchup between two sides heading in very different directions.
The Winnipeg Jets are one of the hottest teams in the NHL, having posted a 7-2-1 record over the last 10 games to place them atop the Central Division.
Meanwhile, the Calgary Flames dropped seven consecutive games and are near the bottom of the Western Conference.
Despite this miserable slump, I wouldn't be so quick to write off the Flames. There are a lot of good signs amid the fog.
At five-on-five over the last seven games, Calgary sits fourth in shot share and seventh in expected goal share. It's controlling well over 55% in each category, which is no small feat given the competition it's faced, including the New Jersey Devils (twice), the Boston Bruins, and the Edmonton Oilers.
In comparison, the 6-1 Jets controlled just over 48% of the expected goal share during the same period. They've simply had mind-numbing goaltending - a ridiculous .950 five-on-five save percentage - mask any and all problems.
As good as Connor Hellebuyck is, he can't continue to play at this level on a nightly basis.
On the flip side, even if we assume the Flames are taking a step back without Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk, they're much better - and are playing much better - than the results indicate. Things are going to change in a big way so long as the process remains sound.
I think the Flames will come out on fire - no pun intended - and put an end to their losing streak Saturday night at home.
Bet: Flames moneyline (expected range: -135)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.