NHL weekend best bets: Penguins to best Canucks
We split our best bets Thursday night. The Dallas Stars took care of business with a shutout win at home. However, the Florida Panthers couldn't top the Philadelphia Flyers despite outshooting them 51-22.
Let's take a look at two games that stand out over the next couple of nights as we look for a clean weekend on the ice.
Penguins (-170) @ Canucks (+145)
Oct. 28, 10 p.m. ET
The Vancouver Canucks finally picked up their first win of the season Thursday, besting the Kraken in Seattle. However, the same season-long red flags in their process remained.
Vancouver was outshot 36-19 and posted a putrid 41% expected goal share. If not for Martin Jones' dreadful showing - he conceded four goals on 1.72 expected - the Canucks might still be winless heading into their ninth game of the campaign.
While the victory will no doubt help the team's morale, and perhaps give Vancouver a confidence boost, I don't expect that to last very long.
The 4-2-1 Pittsburgh Penguins no doubt mean business after back-to-back three-goal losses in Alberta.
They've largely played well this season, even without Jake Guentzel. Pittsburgh has controlled 56.29% of the xG and 54.81% of the high-danger chances at five-on-five, ranking sixth and seventh in those respective categories.
Compare that to the Canucks, who sit 27th in each category. The Penguins' skaters should have a clear advantage, especially playing fresh against a team in a back-to-back situation.
Pittsburgh should also benefit from an edge in goal. Tristan Jarry is 4-1-0 with a .923 save percentage in the early going.
The Canucks will either go with a fatigued Thatcher Demko, who's struggled mightily this season, or a 27-year-old journeyman with 10 career NHL games to his name in Spencer Martin.
Look for the Penguins to get back on track in Vancouver.
Bet: Penguins in regulation (-105)
Hurricanes (TBD) @ Flyers (TBD)
Oct. 29, 7 p.m. ET
The Flyers have surprised many, including myself, by starting the season 5-2-0.
But despite that record, and the fact that the guys are undoubtedly buying into what John Tortorella is selling, the reality is they're getting nuked in shot and scoring chances each and every night.
Philadelphia has taken just over 39% of the shot attempts, and 35% of the high-danger chances, through seven games. For perspective, last year's 25-win Arizona Coyotes team came in at 44% and 42%, respectively.
The biggest reason for Philadelphia's success: the Flyers have scored on a higher percentage of their shots than the likes of Colorado, Minnesota, Vegas, Tampa Bay, and Calgary. That's despite their very underwhelming group of forwards, which is littered with AHLers and fourth-liners. Call me crazy, but I don't see that trend continuing.
I also don't see Carter Hart continuously stopping nearly 97% of the shots he faces at five-on-five. Even if we assumed he's flipped a switch and is now the NHL's best goaltender, that number should be around 93%.
Across all situations, the Carolina Hurricanes rank first in shot share and second in high-danger chance share. They're known for dominating the run of play against their opposition. Similar to Florida on Thursday night, Carolina could have a 20-plus edge in shots, even in a back-to-back situation.
Sooner than later, the Flyers will pay a price.
Bet: Hurricanes in regulation (expected line: -125)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.