Give Jerry Jones credit. The Dallas Cowboys owner could have fired coach Mike McCarthy on his way off the field after his team lost to the San Francisco 49ers in the wild-card round last year. The feature play was Dak Prescott's inability to get a final snap off in time, but 14 penalties for 89 yards indicated a more pervasive issue. Dallas committed the most penalties in the NFL for the most yards, and it wasn't particularly close. McCarthy's job survived the immediate playoff aftermath despite discipline costing the club multiple games in 2021.
Salary-cap issues forced the Cowboys to trade Amari Cooper this offseason. The amount of money Dallas committed to Ezekiel Elliott brought on the cap constraints, and that's a decision made by Jones.
Nevertheless, the market still believes in the Cowboys. However, that may be out of habit from taking bets on "America's Team" at almost any price each year.
2022 Season odds
| Market | Odds (O/U) |
|---|---|
| Win total | 10.0 (-110/-110) |
| Division | +135 |
| Conference | +850 |
| Super Bowl | +1800 |
An 11-win season for Dallas is what it'll take to cash an over bet. Getting to the Super Bowl will likely require three playoff victories against teams who probably have a coaching advantage and are likely just as talented, so +850 is predictably too short.
Schedule outlook
| Week | Opponent | Lookahead line |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | TB | +2 |
| 2 | CIN | -1.5 |
| 3 | @NYG | -4 |
| 4 | WSH | -6 |
| 5 | @LAR | +4.5 |
| 6 | @PHI | PK |
| 7 | DET | -7 |
| 8 | CHI | -7 |
| 10 | @GB | +4 |
| 11 | @MIN | PK |
| 12 | NYG | -7 |
| 13 | IND | -2.5 |
| 14 | HOU | -8 |
| 15 | @JAX | -3.5 |
| 16 | PHI | -3.5 |
| 17 | @TEN | +1.5 |
| 18 | @WSH | -1 |
The Cowboys see Super Bowl participants from each of the last two seasons right off the bat, hosting the 2020 champs on Sunday Night Football in Week 1. Both contests are near pick'em games. Dallas is lined up to be touchdown favorites on Thanksgiving against the New York Giants, looking for a rare win in its annual showcase. That's one of four games in which the Cowboys may be giving a converted touchdown or more to their opponent.
SWOT Analysis
Strengths
Pro Football Focus graded Dallas' offensive line as the best in the league last year, with Tyron Smith and Zack Martin leading that group. However, the other three spots are up in the air, with La'el Collins and Connor Williams moving on via free agency. Prescott returned from his season-ending injury in 2020 to finish with the third-best quarterback rating.
Defensively, Micah Parsons made a big splash last season, winning Defensive Rookie of the Year. He finished with 13 sacks and created pressure from various locations. Trevon Diggs' second campaign will be harder to duplicate after 11 interceptions in 2021.
Weaknesses
Given those big-time performances, you'd think the Cowboys' team metrics would be better, but Dallas was a middle-of-the-pack club in yards per play allowed and yards per pass. Add in their penalty troubles, and the defense was a net-negative even with Parsons and Diggs having exceptional seasons. What if the Cowboys don't create the league-leading number of turnovers they did last year?
Next to Parsons, Dallas' leading returning sacker is Dorance Armstrong. Meanwhile, much has been made about Diggs' coverage skills when he's not picking off passes. He allowed over 1,000 yards to receivers he covered last season.
Lastly, Elliott averaged 14 carries for 59 yards per game. Those were mostly wasted plays, especially considering his backup, Tony Pollard, averaged 5.5 yards per carry and showed home-run hitting ability.
Opportunities
The most likely opportunity with regards to betting the Cowboys is to pick your spots to fade them. There's no reason to believe the coaching and team discipline will improve. Elliott is unlikely to get sprier, and the passing offense probably won't pick up where it left off with Cooper in Cleveland and half the offensive line filled with replacement-level players.
Threats
If the idea is to fade Dallas where possible, the threat is that it's a good team. So, the Cowboys as home underdogs in Week 1 is one of the rare instances when the market might not be overrating them. A win against the Bucs might change how we perceive this club based on the artificiality of a small sample size.
How to bet the Cowboys
We'll wait and see if the line gets to pushed to +3 in Week 1. After that, our lack of faith in Dallas' defense replicating its 2021 season means we'll frequently be backing the team's underdog opponents throughout the campaign.
The player with the biggest upside in futures markets is CeeDee Lamb. He steps into a focal target role for Prescott and is +1500 for most receptions, +1400 for most receiving yards, and +1400 for most receiving touchdowns.
Jalen Tolbert is live to have the most receiving yards of the rookie class at +1200 if he can find his way into a regular position in three-wide sets - the Cowboys' formation of choice.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
