The New York Jets doubled their win total in 2021, going from two victories in 2020 to four. With both a head coach and quarterback in place, it's been a quiet offseason outside of two off-field headlines that were hard not to notice. For our purposes, what's important to know is how bettors are viewing New York in the marketplace.
Most popular win total at five sportsbooks:
— Darren Rovell (@darrenrovell) May 12, 2022
New York Jets, OVER 5.5 winshttps://t.co/0Vg6athIJJ
The Jets' win total over has seen the juice slowly rise from -110 to -165 over the summer, and not just because of an artificial boost to Zach Wilson's reputation. However, the market isn't willing to buy the Jets for anything beyond mediocrity.
2022 season odds
| Market | Odds (O/U) |
|---|---|
| Win total | 5.5 (-165/+135) |
| Division | +2200 |
| Conference | +7500 |
| Super Bowl | +13000 |
A 22-1 price for a division title in a league known for its parity would normally require us to take a look, but the three other teams will be gunning for not just an AFC East banner, but also postseason success. That's before acknowledging the AFC is laden with contenders. For bettors, a positive outlook is the Jets going over their win total.
Schedule outlook
| Week | Opponent | Lookahead line |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | +6 |
| 2 | @CLE | N/A |
| 3 | CIN | +5 |
| 4 | @PIT | +3.5 |
| 5 | MIA | +2.5 |
| 6 | @GB | +9.5 |
| 7 | @DEN | +7.5 |
| 8 | NE | +2.5 |
| 9 | BUF | +7 |
| 11 | @NE | +6 |
| 12 | CHI | -2.5 |
| 13 | @MIN | +4.5 |
| 14 | @BUF | +9.5 |
| 15 | DET | -2.5 |
| 16 | JAX | -2.5 |
| 17 | @SEA | +1.5 |
| 18 | @MIA | +5.5 |
For all the fervor in betting the Jets to win six games, they'll likely be underdogs in their first 10 contests and are currently projected to be favored just three times all year - each by only 2.5 points.
SWOT analysis
Strengths
Obviously, given their record across the last few years, a strength is relative and/or theoretical. Despite Wilson's purported preference for experience, he'll be surrounded by young talent that the Jets procured in the draft, including wide receiver Garrett Wilson and running back Breece Hall. They should take some pressure off the quarterback, who threw 11 interceptions and took 44 sacks.
Wilson is the favorite for most interceptions (+800), but the biggest addition to help him succeed is someone they've already had in-house. After a stellar rookie year, Mekhi Becton played just one game last season. If he can regain that early form, the Jets' offensive line - ranked 11th last year by Pro Football Focus without Becton - becomes the strength that can allow the young players to flourish.
Weaknesses
Joe Douglas is in his third year as general manager, but he and second-year head coach, Robert Saleh, can only rebuild so quickly. Saleh is a defensive specialist, but the Jets struggled in that regard last season, giving up 5.9 yards per play. That put them in a tie for second-worst, the same spot they finished in takeaways, with just 0.8 per game.
So why all the hope in the betting market? Like the offense, the defense returns a key player who was sidelined last season. Carl Lawson was the big addition in Saleh's first season, only to suffer a season-ending injury during the preseason. Like the offense, Douglas' ability to acquire high draft picks means the defense has two top prospects in Jermaine Johnson and fourth overall pick Sauce Gardner. Lawson and Johnson provide the Jets with pass-rushing options. Gardner, a presumed shutdown corner, is something Saleh didn't have to work with last year either. But is it enough?
Opportunities
With the big move on the win total already done, there isn't much opportunity to bet on the Jets in a positive way from a team perspective, as I'm not willing to lay that much juice on a squad that's favored as rarely as New York is. With this many key rookies on the roster and a pair of returning impact players, there's a wide range of outcomes on both a team and individual level.
Threats
Those betting the Jets' over may have gotten overexcited about the team's four main prospects, Zach Wilson's alpha capability, and the effect of Becton and Lawson returning at top speed. All three could easily be a mirage.
How to bet the Jets
Hall (+750) is the second choice for Offensive Rookie of the Year, and Garrett Wilson (+1000) isn't far behind. In order to win a bet here, you'd need the Jets' offense to be good and to have picked the better of the two players after votes are split.
Gardner and Johnson are each 10-1 for Defensive Rookie of the Year, so you run into the same problem about splitting votes.
Instead of laying juice on the Jets to succeed, you're probably better off betting New York on a game-to-game basis. A quick glance at the Jets' current spreads suggests you can take the points up over key numbers like +3, +6, and +7. Finally, if they're going to get six victories, there will be some underdog moneyline wins in there too.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
