The sample size isn't definitive, but with a very specific classification of data, Aaron Rodgers has 24 touchdowns and just three interceptions in 11 carefully selected games. Those parameters are contests Rodgers played without Davante Adams since the wide receiver joined the team in 2014, and the signal-caller owns a 10-1 record in those matchups.
The sample size spanning Rodgers' entire career suggests he might be pretty good at football. But with the big news of the offseason centering around his return and Adams' departure, it's worth quelling the concerns for the Green Bay Packers' offense with any stats we have. Are the betting markets showing any worries about the Pack's attack, though?
2022 Season odds
| Market | Odds (O/U) |
|---|---|
| Win total | 11.0 (-110/-110) |
| Division | -190 |
| Conference | +450 |
| Super Bowl | +1000 |
Green Bay is tied for the third choice in the Super Bowl markets, one of four teams to be the odds-on favorite for their division. The Packers' median win total of 11 is higher than every team except for the Buffalo Bills and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Schedule outlook
| Week | Opponent | Lookahead line |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @MIN | -2 |
| 2 | CHI | -9.5 |
| 3 | @TB | +3.5 |
| 4 | NE | -5 |
| 5 | NYG | -7 |
| 6 | NYJ | -9.5 |
| 7 | @WSH | -3.5 |
| 8 | @BUF | +4 |
| 9 | @DET | -6 |
| 10 | DAL | -4 |
| 11 | TEN | -4.5 |
| 12 | @PHI | PK |
| 13 | @CHI | -4 |
| 15 | LAR | PK |
| 16 | @MIA | -1 |
| 17 | MIN | -5.5 |
| 18 | DET | -8 |
By the time home games in Week 2 and Week 6 come around, Green Bay is likely to be double-digit home favorites over the Chicago Bears and New York Jets. The Packers project to be underdogs just twice - in road contests at Tampa Bay and Buffalo. A late Week 14 bye isn't ideal, but it sets the team up to be rested for a visit from the defending Super Bowl Champion Los Angeles Rams.
SWOT Analysis
Strengths
As long as Rodgers keeps showing up to work, the offense has to be considered a strength. He lost both tackles for much of last season, and it didn't appear to matter.
Arguably the most impressive win last campaign came in Arizona against the Cardinals when Green Bay had three starting receivers out. Rodgers won the game despite Juwan Winfree's four catches for 30 yards leading the position group. The Packers' plan to replace Adams includes Sammy Watkins and second-round pick Christian Watson. Both should benefit by being Rodgers' teammate rather than the other way around.
Weaknesses
When you win 13 games and get the top seed in the NFC, there isn't going to be much in the way of weaknesses. The defense placed top five in opponents' yards per pass attempt, so, on the surface, that should be a strength, too. However, much of Green Bay's success defensively has been undermined on the occasions it met teams that can dominate the line of scrimmage via the run game. The club's 4.6 yards per carry allowed leaves them in a tie for 26th in the NFL with teams like the Los Angeles Chargers and Houston Texans.
This issue meant that the San Francisco 49ers managed to run the ball just well enough in the divisional round to linger despite only 131 yards passing. That's when the one fatal flaw of the 2021 Packers reared its ugly head - the special teams. The unit has ranked last or second last in four of the previous six years, according to Pro Football Focus, and gave up the season-changing play on a blocked punt returned for a touchdown. Former interim Las Vegas Raiders head coach Rich Bisaccia will coordinate Green Bay's special teams this campaign.
Opportunities
The Minnesota Vikings have been one of those clubs that can move the ball on the ground and create advantages for their quarterback against the Packers. Sure enough, Green Bay heads to Minnesota in Week 1. Win or lose there, anything under 10 points might be worth laying in Week 2 against Rodgers' proprietary territory, Chicago. Later in the season, backing Rodgers as an underdog - while rare - is always a good idea.
Threats
What if the sample size sans-Adams is too small, leaving 17 games for Rodgers to deal with a group slightly better than the one he had in Arizona last year, resulting in a production dip? Three straight 13-win seasons is impressive, but the Packers need almost all of that to cash over tickets. The 2018 campaign that got Mike McCarthy fired saw Rodgers throw for 4,442 yards, 25 touchdowns, and just two interceptions. It's possible that Green Bay struggles even if Rodgers has a good season.
How to bet the Packers
I don't want to fade Rodgers and the Packers, but I don't want to back them at these prices either. With a healthy star quarterback, Green Bay wins around 11 games a lot of the time. Then there's the issue of playoff performance, which hasn't been good enough to trust with any futures tickets.
Rodgers' (+1000) chances of another MVP are good, and the bar actually gets lowered for him without Adams since a usual Rodgers-type season would be even more impressive. That lowered bar is seen in his season-long statistical props. His passing yards total is 4,050.5, but I'd bet the under 31.5 touchdown passes if I'm going to fade Rodgers in any way.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
