Not even the most ardent Minnesota Vikings supporter - including Lizzo herself - could make a case to keep Mike Zimmer after the 2021 season. The club's four losses by less than a field goal or in overtime don't even include a home loss against Cooper Rush. Even the close wins were moral losses - pulling out games against the Lions and Panthers and merely outlasting the COVID-19-ravaged Bears in prime time.
Kevin O'Connell takes the headset as arguably the most surprising hire of the offseason, but the Rams' offensive coordinator of the past two seasons is, at least, an outside-the-box thinker. Given recent assertions that Zimmer didn't vibe with Kirk Cousins, the fact that O'Connell and the Vikings quarterback crossed paths in Washington leaves reason to be hopeful despite little other information about the new head coach. Are the betting markets as optimistic?
2022 season odds
| Market | Odds (O/U) |
|---|---|
| Win total | 9.0 (-115/-105) |
| Division | +265 |
| Conference | +2000 |
| Super Bowl | +4500 |
These numbers are proof that an organization can replace a head coach, and it's not considered a radical reconstruction of a team or its chances for success. These odds are largely the same as they were going into last season, as the Vikings lag behind the Packers in market perception in the NFC North.
Schedule outlook
| Week | Opponent | Lookahead line |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | GB | +2 |
| 2 | @PHI | +2.5 |
| 3 | DET | -6.5 |
| 4 | @NO | -1 |
| 5 | CHI | -6 |
| 6 | @MIA | +3 |
| 8 | ARZ | -1 |
| 9 | @WSH | PK |
| 10 | @BUF | +7.5 |
| 11 | DAL | PK |
| 12 | NE | -1.5 |
| 13 | NYJ | -4.5 |
| 14 | @DET | -2 |
| 15 | IND | PK |
| 16 | NYG | -5 |
| 17 | @GB | +5.5 |
| 18 | @CHI | -1.5 |
The Vikings as short home underdogs in Week 1 is interesting, given how competitive they've been in recent matchups with the Packers. Did Zimmer have a game plan that fit well, or will Dalvin Cook have continued success setting everything up for Cousins?
SWOT analysis
Strengths
The offensive triumvirate of Adam Thielen, Justin Jefferson, and Dalvin Cook are potentially a top-five trio in the league, but the Vikings' offense can only succeed if Cousins can get the ball into the right hands. Brian O'Neill and Christian Darrisaw are strong tackles, but the interior of the Vikings' line can result in deer-in-headlights plays that have plagued Cousins when he sees pressure up the middle.
Weaknesses
Zimmer's calling card was defense, but that unit ranked 26th in opponent yards per play, and its inability to get stops late in games was as much of a problem as any internal issues between the former coach and Cousins.
The Vikings hired veteran defensive coordinator Ed Donatell to improve the unit and provide experience within the coaching staff. But is there enough talent for him to work with? Za'Darius Smith comes over from Green Bay and will be paired for bookend pressure with Danielle Hunter, who played in just seven games last season but still managed six sacks. Having both of those edge rushers causing havoc will make a big difference, regardless of what schemes Donatell has up his sleeve.
Opportunities
It won't take long to tell if the offensive continuity stemming from on-field personnel can bridge whatever adjustments O'Connell implements. The Vikings as home 'dogs against the Packers is a spot I have circled, so I could make the case that Green Bay's offense has the bigger early-season hurdle to overcome.
Threats
Admittedly, we probably should have seen the players' complacency coming given how long Zimmer had been the boss. Now, Cousins gets a fresh start with someone not much older than he is and a coordinator that might be the next relevant offensive mind. But what if O'Connell's just another coach? What if Cousins, after 10 seasons in the league, can't elevate his game any further?
How to bet the Vikings
While the +265 odds for the division title are enticing, you can get a head start by betting the Vikings in Week 1. A win there gives you an immediate payout rather than waiting for the season to play out and potentially witnessing the devastating defeats Minnesota tends to suffer when least expected. If the Vikings do find what they're looking for and become the class of the NFC North, they become contenders in a diluted conference. You'll be hard-pressed to find a team with as much potential at 20-1 or longer to make the Super Bowl.
Cousins (+5000) won't be winning MVP, none of the big names have anything to come back from, and expectations are high enough that only an absurdly good season might get O'Connell (+2000) some consideration for Coach of the Year.
It's Jefferson who gets my attention here. At +800, he's the favorite for most receiving yards, the fifth choice for most receiving touchdowns (+900), and 20-1 to win Offensive Player of the Year - all of which are conceivable.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
