When you get to Week 13 without a win, and you're the Detroit Lions, you might assume the worst. But the Lions finished the 2021 season with three wins in their last six games, and a second look at their campaign is seen in a different tint.
Detroit lost on late field goals to the Baltimore Ravens, Minnesota Vikings, and Chicago Bears in the first 11 weeks, but those are considered moral victories in coach Dan Campbell's debut season. That's not to mention the Lions' tie on the road against the Pittsburgh Steelers. So, a 3-13-1 campaign means what exactly when it comes to the betting markets' expectations for Detroit's 2022 season?
2022 Season odds
| Market | Odds (O/U) |
|---|---|
| Win total | 6.5 (-115/-105) |
| Division | +1000 |
| Conference | +6000 |
| Super Bowl | +15000 |
A win total of 6.5 isn't exactly getting carried away with optimism for the Lions. Still, it's a step in the right direction in that their odds in the major futures markets aren't the longest in their division - a rarity for Detroit.
Schedule outlook
| Week | Opponent | Lookahead line |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI | +4 |
| 2 | WSH | +1.5 |
| 3 | @MIN | +6.5 |
| 4 | SEA | -1 |
| 5 | @NE | +6.5 |
| 7 | @DAL | +7 |
| 8 | MIA | +3 |
| 9 | GB | +6 |
| 10 | @CHI | +1.5 |
| 11 | @NYG | +1.5 |
| 12 | BUF | +8 |
| 13 | JAX | -2 |
| 14 | MIN | +2 |
| 15 | @NYJ | +2.5 |
| 16 | @CAR | +4 |
| 17 | CHI | -1.5 |
| 18 | @GB | +8 |
The lack of large point spreads might be even more telling that the Lions are expected to be more competitive. Part of that is the soft schedule that a team gets for finishing last in the NFC North. Part of that also comes from road games against the Bears, New York Giants, New York Jets, and Carolina Panthers - clubs that don't warrant that kind of point spread weight.
SWOT Analysis
Strengths
It's not often a quarterback who has been to a Super Bowl could be considered a placeholder, but Jared Goff is likely that. The Lions are doing the right thing by building from the lines and out. Despite not having the depth or skill position talent in 2021, Detroit competed in the trenches.
Frank Ragnow played just four games last season, but the 2020 All-Pro center is back to coordinate a line with Taylor Decker - who appeared in only nine contests the previous campaign - and 2021 first-rounder Penei Sewell at the tackle positions. The line also has a pair of quality guards. A healthy season from this unit will make life easier on Goff, even if he's just waiting to be replaced by a future first-rounder on a rookie deal.
Adding Jameson Williams and DJ Chark to the emergent Amon-Ra St. Brown and T.J. Hockenson makes the skill positions dangerous, especially since three different running backs had success behind the Lions' not-fully-formed line last season.
Weaknesses
Once Detroit finally invests in its quarterback of the future, it can allocate that money saved into filling the holes in the defense. The Lions already started that process by having Aidan Hutchinson fall into their laps in April's draft.
Given that Detroit finished dead last in opponent yards per pass attempt, a better pass rush would be a good start for 2022. However, outside of hoping for Jeff Okudah to take a big leap at corner, Hutchinson looks more like the first step in a defensive rebuild versus anything resembling a final missing piece from a talent standpoint.
Opportunities
The Lions will score more than the 19 points per game they averaged last season. But I can't guarantee they won't continue to give up the 27.5 points per contest they allowed. As a result, overs may be the play in Detroit's games, especially since the assumption will be that Goff is a liability.
Threats
The Lions' offensive line managed through two significant injuries last season, but hopefully it doesn't come to that in 2022. If it does, any hopes for Williams and Chark to make a major impact will dwindle significantly. Goff will be left with panic throws underneath to Hockenson and D'Andre Swift - defensible weapons when there's little threat of a deep attack, especially if the opponent is scoring at will.
How to bet the Lions
Goff surpassed the passing yards total of 3,850.5 in each of the previous three seasons before getting to Detroit. He could probably miss a contest or two and still hit that mark given the game state the Lions may find themselves in during the fourth quarter.
Hutchinson (+550) is the favorite for Defensive Rookie of the Year, but that's a market that often sees someone from down the board win the award. The Offensive Rookie of the Year market has Williams lower on the board at 16-1 due to concerns about his knee injury late last season and Campbell saying he doesn't expect the 21-year-old to be ready for training camp. Williams is just as likely to win OROY as any of the receivers listed above him if he's good to go for Week 1.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
