The way the Chicago Bears utilized possible future franchise quarterback Justin Fields last season might have been the final straw in Matt Nagy's tenure. The Bears managed six wins from three different quarterbacks with Fields in and out of the lineup, and now they've started the rebuild, hiring general manager Ryan Poles and new head coach Matt Eberflus.
The new regime in the front office and on the sidelines is important - Chicago could lose almost every game this season, and it likely won't cost the primary decision-makers their jobs. That wasn't the case when the team drafted Fields in the 2021 Draft, so given the new circumstances, the major betting markets raise some interesting questions.
2022 Season odds
| Market | Odds (O/U) |
|---|---|
| Win total | 6.5 (+110/-130) |
| Division | +1400 |
| Conference | +6500 |
| Super Bowl | +15000 |
When it comes to futures odds to win any sort of banner title, it doesn't really matter whether the Bears are 65-1 or a billion-to-one to reach the Super Bowl. They're not getting there. However, in the either/or market of season win totals, a median projection of 6.5 - even juiced to the under - seems optimistic.
Schedule outlook
| Week | Opponent | Lookahead line |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | SF | +6.5 |
| 2 | @GB | +9.5 |
| 3 | HOU | -3 |
| 4 | @NYG | +2.5 |
| 5 | @MIN | +6 |
| 6 | WSH | +1.5 |
| 7 | @NE | +6 |
| 8 | @DAL | +7 |
| 9 | MIA | +3 |
| 10 | DET | -1.5 |
| 11 | @ATL | PK |
| 12 | @NYJ | +2.5 |
| 13 | GB | +4 |
| 15 | PHI | +3 |
| 16 | BUF | +7 |
| 17 | @DET | +1.5 |
| 18 | MIN | +1.5 |
How does Chicago find seven wins this campaign? Based solely on the lookahead lines currently available for betting, the club would need to win its three games as short favorites or pick'em and then four of its six games as short underdogs. That's theoretically doable - until you evaluate the teams similar to the Bears.
The Giants, Dolphins, Jets, and Lions (twice) are all expected to improve, while the Vikings and Falcons are going through the same sort of institutional changes and have a more proven quarterback/roster.
SWOT Analysis
Strengths
Defensively, the Bears were at least somewhat average last season, ranking in the middle of the pack in yards per play against and yards per pass attempt against. That was with Akiem Hicks and Khalil Mack in and out of the lineup, but now the former is in Tampa Bay, and the latter is in Los Angeles. What's left is Robert Quinn - coming off his best year since 2013 - and budding star Roquan Smith.
Weaknesses
Fields got jerked around in a season where the primary goal should have been to provide him the most stability. He played in 12 games - starting 10 of them - and threw 10 interceptions, lost five fumbles, and was sacked an alarming 36 times.
Does a new regime mean Fields will flourish? Unfortunately, that seems unlikely. Braxton Jones, a fifth-round pick out of Southern Utah, is slotted into the starting left tackle spot, replacing Jason Peters - the one bright spot on the offensive line - who remains unsigned at 39 years old. The second-best performer on the line was James Daniels, but the Steelers noticed that, and now he's in Pittsburgh.
Opportunities
The betting market possibly doesn't realize how bad this team might be this season - intentionally or otherwise. With veterans like Jimmy Graham, Allen Robinson, Peters, Mack, and Hicks moving out, among others, the rebuild is on. However, the Bears start as underdogs in large-spread games against the 49ers, and Packers, so the word will get out quickly before we can fade them when they play a team currently rated in the same tier.
Threats
If the lean is to fade this team, the threat to that idea is better-than-expected play from a defensive line that's gone from strong to weak and an offensive line that's gotten even thinner after a bad campaign. It seems improbable that Fields finds the time for - and chemistry with - a feeble wide receiving corps.
How to bet the Bears
Eberflus should have the patience to stick with Fields all season, regardless of wins and losses. That could result in high volume statistical output, but given what's around him, that might be a bad thing. From a betting standpoint, Fields (+1000) is one of the favorites for most interceptions thrown. The Bears are also +600 for fewest points scored, an accomplishment potentially helped by playing four of their final five games at home in Chicago's early winter.
Under 6.5 wins is a bet that will look good after two games and likely throughout the season. At worst, it could come down to the Bears' games with Detroit and Minnesota to close the season - two teams that should outmatch Chicago.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
