The Buccaneers' offseason felt like a dream sequence - it was that quick. Tampa Bay's prolific quarterback spent less time in retirement than it takes to watch "Man In The Arena," but the brief nightmare of life after Tom Brady had to put management in a cold sweat.
The machinations around Bruce Arians stepping away from the sideline - while potentially juicy - aren't likely to mean much for a team that still has Byron Leftwich working with Brady and Todd Bowles moving from defensive coordinator to the big gig. Oddsmakers and the betting market seem unconcerned that the Bucs won't be as good, or better, than their first two years with Brady at the helm.
2022 Season odds
| Market | Odds (O/U) |
|---|---|
| Win total | 11.5 (-120/+100) |
| Division | -300 |
| Conference | +300 |
| Super Bowl | +700 |
The Buccaneers are the favorites to win the NFC, but given they didn't win the division two years ago and didn't make the NFC Championship Game last year, buying Tampa at +300 seems like a short price for something that's far from probable. While Tampa doesn't have a definitive challenger within the division, betting three units to win back one would require conviction that rarely pays off in the NFL.
Schedule outlook
| Week | Opponent | Lookahead line |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @DAL | -2 |
| 2 | @NO | -4 |
| 3 | GB | -3.5 |
| 4 | KC | -2.5 |
| 5 | ATL | -10.5 |
| 6 | @PIT | -5.5 |
| 7 | @CAR | -5.5 |
| 8 | BAL | -3.5 |
| 9 | LAR | -1.5 |
| 10 | SEA | -9.5 |
| 12 | @CLE | N/A |
| 13 | NO | -6.5 |
| 14 | @SF | PK |
| 15 | CIN | -3 |
| 16 | @ARZ | -2.5 |
| 17 | CAR | -7.5 |
| 18 | @ATL | -7.5 |
SWOT Analysis
Strengths
Did I mention Brady is back? And so are the many veterans that Bucs brass has put around him. Former Patriot teammate Shaq Mason replaces another surprise retirement in Ali Marpet on Brady's offensive line.
Defensively, Tampa let Ndamukong Suh go and only managed to replace him with Akiem Hicks, who was the key to any success the Bears have had on defense the last few years. The rest of the depth chart features all the same names you've grown accustomed to seeing on a defense that was sometimes as good - if not better - than the offense.
Weaknesses
We even haven't mentioned Rob Gronkowski is allegedly not coming back. However, we'll believe his retirement announcement when we see him not in uniform in Week 1. If Gronk really is done with more than just training camp, Cameron Brate will have to take over the mantle as Brady's security blanket - especially since Chris Godwin is still working his way back from January's torn ACL. A slight thinning of offensive utensils for Brady to cook with isn't much of a weakness, but we have to have something in this section.
Opportunities
Truthfully, the Buccaneers benefit from not needing a ton of wins to claim their division. Tampa's also well aware that it doesn't need home-field advantage throughout the playoffs to win the Super Bowl, having won three straight road games in 2021 and lost at home in January 2022.
Their opportunity to play the season out conservatively might be our opportunity to fade Tampa, but betting for less than 12 wins doesn't seem like much fun. The Bucs' slate is as tricky, though - as a first-place schedule often is - with just two games lined over a touchdown in the first 16 weeks. Outside of a big second half in the playoffs two seasons ago, the Bucs have gotten nothing but trouble from the Saints since Brady took over.
Threats
While Brady is challenging the concept, Father Time is still undefeated. Some may have already declared him the winner in that bout, but many of Tampa's other mere mortal veterans have succumbed to injuries recently. Just because Hicks joins Vita Vea in the interior of a stacked defense doesn't mean either will play every game, given both missed chunks of time the last two seasons. The same goes for the secondary, which has been ravaged in the past. If any human being other than the GOAT attempted this return, we'd all be more worried that this extra Brady campaign is a bad idea.
How to bet the Buccaneers
Given their role as NFC favorites, the bar is obviously set really high for the Bucs. In the NFL, it's not easy to outperform expectations that are already at their peak. Brady is +800 to win MVP, so there's no value to that. There's no credit going to the head coach for a great season in Tampa, so Bowles is better left alone in his awards market.
Brady's passing yardage total of 4,650.5 is a lot to ask in player props for the reasons we suggested above. Relying slightly more on the run game and not having his more familiar targets to extend a few drives with third-down completions could tamp down his numbers. But I would prefer that over fading his total touchdowns, as Tom is still likely to call his own number near the end zone.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
