The Falcons won seven games last year, but that seems hard to believe just six months after the season - especially with the market placing them near the bottom before 2022.
The most notable change for the Falcons is that they'll have a different quarterback for the first time in more than 14 years. Matt Ryan has moved on, allowing Atlanta to fully rebuild. Marcus Mariota takes over in the meantime, looking for a second chance to be a starter in the NFL. But the market doesn't love his chances of success.
2022 Season odds
| Market | Odds (O/U) |
|---|---|
| Win total | 5 (+120/-140) |
| Division | +2500 |
| Conference | +6000 |
| Super Bowl | +12500 |
A season win total of five is just slightly higher than that of the Texans, who are the lowest-rated team in the league. Like Houston, Atlanta's 25-1 odds to win the division don't suggest much hope, but is there really less than a 4% chance that the Falcons complete 17 games with a better record than the Panthers, Saints, and Buccaneers?
Schedule outlook
| Week | Opponent | Lookahead line |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO | +4.5 |
| 2 | @LAR | +13 |
| 3 | @SEA | +3.5 |
| 4 | CLE | N/A |
| 5 | @TB | +10.5 |
| 6 | SF | +6.5 |
| 7 | @CIN | +10 |
| 8 | CAR | PK |
| 9 | LAC | +6.5 |
| 10 | @CAR | +3 |
| 11 | CHI | PK |
| 12 | @WSH | +5 |
| 13 | PIT | +2.5 |
| 15 | @NO | +7 |
| 16 | @BAL | +7.5 |
| 17 | ARZ | +3.5 |
| 18 | TB | +7.5 |
SWOT Analysis
Strengths
There won't be a ton of strengths for a team lined at five wins for the coming campaign, but a second year for head coach Arthur Smith and defensive coordinator Dean Pees suggests continuity that other clubs in their win-total neighborhood don't always have.
The defense has some high-end players, with A.J. Terrell at corner, Grady Jarrett creating chaos for the defensive line, and acquisitions at the second level in Rashaan Evans and rookie Arnold Ebiketie.
Weaknesses
Unfortunately, the rest of that group is made up of journeymen cast-offs or veterans on their third or fourth team, and generating a pass rush will likely be difficult.
The offensive line was ranked 27th in Pro Football Focus's end-of-the-year grading, and that may have partly stemmed from Ryan's immobility, along with how long it took for the Falcons to figure out their rushing attack. For better or worse, the entire group returns this year. If you're worried about Calvin Ridley's season-long suspension for betting parlays, it's not like he was around much last year.
Opportunities
In Smith's first year as an offensive coordinator for the Titans, then-head coach Mike Mularkey gave Mariota a quick hook in Week 6. Would a longer leash for Mariota have resulted in a similar season to what Ryan Tannehill produced with Smith calling plays? We'll never know, but you could sell me on the idea that Smith wouldn't have been a proponent of signing Mariota if he thought the former Oregon standout was incapable of running his offense well.
The former second overall draft pick spent most of his early career surrounded by minimal high-end talent in Music City in an offense that may not have suited his skill set. With young weapons and Smith finding an ideal usage for Cordarrelle Patterson, there's potential to buy low on the Falcons' offense.
Threats
The other team's offense won't be a buy-low, mainly because the Falcons' defense still lacks depth of talent. That said, they found themselves in the middle of the NFL on primary defensive stats like yards per rush and yards per play. Forcing the defense to blitz to create pressure would consistently leave a shaky secondary vulnerable.
How to bet the Falcons
Five wins seem doable if you think Mariota can combine his mobility with using big-bodied pass catchers Kyle Pitts and rookie Drake London while Patterson revitalizes himself as a weapon out of the backfield. In fact, at 25-1 to win the division, I wouldn't stop you from taking a low-cost shot on Atlanta being better than Carolina and New Orleans, in conjunction with the indestructible quarterback in Tampa maybe finally being destructible.
At +800 to make the playoffs, a second-place finish in the South would put Atlanta in competition for one of three wild cards in a not-so-deep NFC. That would require a Comeback Player of the Year-type season from Mariota (+1400) and potentially result in Smith (+5000 for Coach of the Year) getting a lot of credit for expediting the rebuild.
Of course, it's more likely the Falcons start the campaign 1-6 before a pick'em game with Carolina, but we're getting huge odds on outlier performances, with a fair amount of variable uncertainty in Atlanta and the NFC South as a whole. Those are the best times to take a few big swings in a league known for surprising results.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
