The Toronto Maple Leafs defeated the Tampa Bay Lightning 5-2 on Friday at Amalie Arena. With a pair of empty-net goals, the final score doesn't quite do the game justice. It was a thriller, and Toronto now holds a 2-1 series lead. Here are four matchups to watch in Game 4, which goes Sunday in Tampa.
1. Matthews' line vs. Cirelli's line
Auston Matthews is the biggest target in a series stacked with star forwards.
There's no way around it; the opposing team must game plan against the NHL's only 60-goal scorer. Lightning coach Jon Cooper has tasked center Anthony Cirelli with shutting down Matthews or at least containing him.
Line matching wasn't easy with the Leafs having last-change privileges in the first two games. Cirelli, a Selke Trophy candidate, was on the ice for only 37% of Matthews' even-strength minutes in Game 1 and then 49% in Game 2. Cooper increased it to 79% in Game 3 when the series shifted to Tampa. (Cooper's other shutdown guy, blue-liner Victor Hedman, has seen similar deployment, matching up for 23%, 49%, and 70% of Matthews' minutes.)
At any rate, the high-level results are so far strongly in Toronto's favor. Matthews' line, with Mitch Marner and Michael Bunting on the wings, has combined to score five goals (all situations), while Cirelli's line has potted just one. Not all of those tallies were scored head to head, but it's still a notable development. Simply put, Tampa has failed to contain Matthews.
Nobody on the Leafs was under more pressure coming into the playoffs than Marner, the poster child for last season's collapse against the Montreal Canadiens. Matthews, who had five points but only one goal in that seven-game series versus the Habs, was probably second on the pressure list.
Toronto is still two wins shy of clinching a playoff series for the first time in 18 years. So the pressure - or the shadow - hasn't vanished. If anything, it's ratcheting up. Keep an eye on TOR34 vs. TBL71 in Game 4 and beyond.
2. Both teams vs. officiating standard
"The parade to the penalty box, it's getting exhausting," Cooper told reporters Friday, referring specifically to Tampa's lack of discipline. He could have easily been talking about the series as a whole. It's been a penalty-taking fest.
Leafs bench boss Sheldon Keefe knows Cooper's pain. Forward Kyle Clifford delivered a dirty hit in Game 1, resulting in a five-minute major and one-game suspension. In Game 2, Wayne Simmonds, another depth piece, took multiple dumb penalties, and the Lightning went 3-for-7 on the power play.
There's been 30 power-play opportunities - 15 for each squad - and it's safe to say a handful can be traced back to "soft calls" or "non-traditional playoff calls." NHL referees have been whistle-happy during the first week of the playoffs, and this apparent new standard is not exclusive to Toronto-Tampa.
Conventional wisdom suggests both teams will adjust ahead of Game 4.
The Lightning, owners of four power-play goals to the Leafs' two in the series, currently have the special-teams edge. At least on the surface. Below the surface, it's closer to tied. Toronto also has two shorthanded snipes and scored another just seconds after a Tampa power play expired early in Game 3.
As for the series score during even-strength action? Toronto 9, Tampa 3.
3. Tavares/Stamkos vs. offensive production
John Tavares and Steven Stamkos have a lot in common.
Both Toronto natives. Both NHL captains. Top-six centers. Key cogs on the power play. Big-money makers cashing $11 million and $8.5 million annually.
They have something else in common at the moment: a lack of production.
Tavares has one assist in 54 minutes. He's been on the ice for one goal for, one against. His six shots on goal are tied for seventh on the Leafs. He's 65% in the faceoff circle. The Leafs have owned 42% of the shot attempts and 40% of the expected goals when Tavares has been on the ice at five-on-five.
Not good. Borderline unacceptable.
Stamkos has one assist in 56 minutes. He's been on the ice for four goals for, five against. His four shots on goal are tied for eighth on the Lightning. He's 48% on faceoffs. Tampa has owned 51% of the shot attempts and 39% of the expected goals when Stamkos has been on the ice at five-on-five.
Not good. Borderline unacceptable. (Though, to be fair, Jack Campbell robbed Stamkos late in Game 3. One goal would make a huge difference.)
While fellow underperforming stars William Nylander (zero points) and Tampa's Brayden Point (one goal) need to get going, too, at least they've had flashes of brilliance in this series. Point, in particular, was superb in Game 3.
4. Vasilevskiy vs. Campbell
Take stock of any playoff series, and goaltending will emerge as an X-factor. This goalie matchup is extra intriguing because Campbell stood on his head Friday while Andrei Vasilevskiy, arguably the best goalie in the world, wilted.
Overall, Campbell has allowed seven goals on 92 shots for a .924 save percentage. The only truly egregious goal the 30-year-old journeyman has surrendered came in the dying seconds of the first period in Game 2; Campbell basically jumped out of the way as Hedman shot the puck.
Vasilevskiy has allowed 11 goals on 100 shots for a .890 save percentage. The only truly egregious goal the 27-year-old superstar has surrendered came midway through the third period in Game 1; Vasilevskiy mishandled the puck behind the net, and Matthews pounced.
Vasilevskiy's track record suggests he'll bounce back not only in Game 4 but for the duration of the series. Campbell has shown no signs of cracking under the bright lights of the postseason, so there's a chance one of these remaining games turns into an old-fashioned goalie duel.
(Advanced statistics via Natural Stat Trick)
John Matisz is theScore's senior NHL writer. Follow John on Twitter (@MatiszJohn) or contact him via email ([email protected]).
