Wednesday night was a good one on the ice. We successfully backed the Calgary Flames to pick up a multi-goal victory over the New Jersey Devils while splitting our +100 player props.
We'll look to turn 2-1 into 3-0 as we dive into our best bets for a jam-packed Thursday slate.
Hurricanes (-110) @ Maple Leafs (-110)
The Carolina Hurricanes enter this game playing some of their best hockey of the season. They're on a 7-2-1 run and have absolutely dominated opponents during that stretch, controlling 58.26% of the shot attempts (first) and 56.14% of the expected goals (fifth) at five-on-five.
Beating a team like the Hurricanes is difficult enough, but when you factor in their elite special teams - headlined by arguably the league's best penalty kill - and high-end goaltending from Frederik Andersen, they're a miserable opponent for any side. I don't think they're getting the respect they deserve.
Considering the Toronto Maple Leafs have home ice, I'd understand pricing this game at essentially a coin flip - if they were just dealing with goaltending issues. That's not the case. Not only are the Maple Leafs starting a third-string netminder, but they're playing without a legitimate Hart Trophy candidate in Auston Matthews.
I don't see Toronto getting the better of the five-on-five play without Matthews. Its special teams are no better than Carolina's, and it's at a big disadvantage in goal with Erik Kallgren going up against a potential Vezina Trophy finalist.
The Hurricanes have plenty of edges in this game. With an implied winning percentage of around 52%, there's real value backing them.
Bet: Hurricanes (-110)
Stars (-190) @ Canadiens (+155)
The Montreal Canadiens have quietly played solid defensive hockey of late. No, seriously.
Over the last 10 games, they rank 10th in attempts against and expected goals against per 60 minutes of five-on-five play. They really haven't given opponents much.
Now they're getting a big jolt in the arm with Jake Allen expected back Thursday night. His play has dipped this season, but Allen still has around 0.30 more goals saved above expected than Sam Montembeault per start - and he carries a higher floor and ceiling.
Put simply, the Canadiens are not giving up many chances. Upgrading in goal should really help them limit teams on the scoreboard.
On the flip side, the Dallas Stars are a competent defensive team with one of the league's hottest netminders. Jake Oettinger has started 17 of the last 20 games, posting a remarkable .927 save percentage in that span. Montreal's offense has been better under Martin St. Louis, but Oettinger still has a good chance of slowing it.
I think this total should be considerably juiced to the under. Since it's not, I'll happily take the value.
Bet: Under 6 (-110)
Capitals (-205) @ Blue Jackets (+170)
The Columbus Blue Jackets have been a team to target all season long - and nothing's happened to give any pause for change.
Columbus has dropped six of the last 10, posting miserable numbers in the process. Its share of the five-on-five shot attempts during that spell was just 43% and, somehow, it looks even worse by expected goals. Its expected goals for percentage is below 40%, which is mind-numbingly bad.
The Washington Capitals are starting to get healthy and desperate for points to get out of a wild-card spot. Winning would be a difficult proposition for Columbus at the best of times. Doing it with Joonas Korpisalo makes it nearly impossible.
OK, that might be a bit of an exaggeration - emphasis on "might." Korpisalo owns a putrid .883 save percentage this season. Of all netminders with at least 19 appearances (Korpisalo's number), only three allow more goals above expected per start.
The Blue Jackets play a style that's heavily reliant on their goaltender stealing games. That's a disastrous recipe with Korpisalo between the pipes.
Bet: Capitals in regulation (-129)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
