Earlier this week, we looked at the way-too-early odds for Super Bowl LVII, illuminating what it takes to make a valuable bet this far ahead of next season's big game. The exercise involved figuring out which teams' chances at a legendary season can improve before a game is played. The same principle applies to the regular-season MVP award, which is inextricably linked to a team's success.
MVP odds
| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Josh Allen | +500 |
| Patrick Mahomes | +600 |
| Aaron Rodgers | +700 |
| Joe Burrow | +1000 |
| Justin Herbert | +1100 |
| Dak Prescott | +1300 |
| Matthew Stafford | +1300 |
| Kyler Murray | +1600 |
| Russell Wilson | +2000 |
| Lamar Jackson | +2500 |
| Derrick Henry | +3300 |
| Deebo Samuel | +3300 |
| Jonathan Taylor | +3300 |
| Deshaun Watson | +3300 |
| Derek Carr | +4000 |
| Kirk Cousins | +4000 |
| Cooper Kupp | +4000 |
| Ryan Tannehill | +4000 |
| Jalen Hurts | +5000 |
| Christian McCaffrey | +5000 |
| Matt Ryan | +5000 |
| Carson Wentz | +5000 |
*Odds longer than 50-1 not listed
In mid-February 2022, this is more about ruling out players to pick than finding a diamond in the rough. The super long shots will still be there come early August and when the games kick off in Week 1.
The favorites
The top three on the board are reasonably priced - Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes are both capable of having their best seasons, while Aaron Rodgers can produce his usual. Joe Burrow's stock couldn't be any higher, so buying him at 10-1 isn't a sharp option.
Justin Herbert +1100
Part of betting an award requires a candidate to have been warmed up in the minds of the voters. Herbert's 2021 season was good enough to deserve the spotlight – had the Chargers been a more successful team. L.A. has enough room to improve, so a big year from Herbert in his third season would still provide enough of a leap to get voters' attention.
Unless something drastic changes in the AFC West this offseason, there isn't any reason to put this bet in now. Something will inevitably happen with any of the other moving pieces in the NFL offseason that will throw attention away from Herbert and onto someone else.
The mid-tier long shots
This section contains players who could see their stock move up to the same level as Allen, Rodgers, and Burrow. No one in the 100-1 range is going to move up to 20-1, so we can wait on anyone we like there. However, the following two players could find themselves closer to +1000 if something happens between now and Labor Day.
Russell Wilson +2000
Have you heard that Wilson has never been awarded an MVP vote?
Of course you have. Say what you want about the MVP award, but it's definitely not ageist. If Wilson moves from the Seahawks to a team with a better chance of contending, then he'll jump into the scrum atop the board. Worst case, he stays in Seattle and remains in the mix as he has in the previous five years he's stayed healthy.
Lamar Jackson +2500
Jackson feels like the forgotten man in the MVP mix. It wouldn't take much for the Ravens to get back on top of the AFC North, and if they're good enough to win that division, they're likely a contender for a top seed in the conference.
When Jackson is at his best, he's shown an ability to carry the offense with both his arm and legs. His resume already includes an MVP award and he produced career-best passing efficiency last season before being beset by injuries.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
