Tuesday NHL betting preview: Pens, Bruins to strengthen playoff bids
We took home a small profit over the weekend, and after a 1-1 split on Monday, we're back with a couple of plays for Tuesday. As always, check Twitter for any other plays that might end up on the card.
Here's what's on tap for tonight.
Penguins (+105) @ Rangers (-125)
I think I've bet the Rangers more than any other team this campaign. New York has remained undervalued for most of the first few months of the season, but oddsmakers have started to adjust. Now what we're seeing is actually a bit of an overcorrection, with the Rangers moving as high as -130 before some buyback on the Penguins settled the line around where it sits now.
New York - a strong candidate for positive regression all year - did claw its way back into the East Division playoff picture, but the squad's performances have tailed off again lately. Excluding the games against the Sabres, the Rangers have actually controlled a lesser portion of the expected goal share at five-on-five in each of their last six games, managing just a 44.6 xGF% over that span.
The Penguins, who typically aren't a strong advanced stats team, have actually posted solid underlying numbers over the past few weeks. Pittsburgh has had New York's number this season - putting up a 5-1 record - and is good value here with the offense rolling once again.
Pick: Penguins (+105)
Bruins (-125) @ Flyers (+105)
The Flyers picked up two massive points in Boston last night to pull within three of the Bruins for the final playoff spot in the East, making tonight's rematch a huge deal for both franchises. However, it's a big ask for Philadelphia to sweep this two-game set against a Boston side that rarely drops back-to-back contests against the same opponent.
In fact, it's not just rare - it flat out doesn't happen. The Bruins are 6-0 this campaign when playing a team they lost to in their previous matchup, having yet to be swept in a two-game set. Not only does Boston win when avenging a defeat, but the squad plays great hockey as well. The club managed a 57.68% share of the expected goals at five-on-five in those six contests, compared to just a 43.26% share in the six losses pre-dating those wins.
The Bruins are excellent in this spot and are worth a play at a relatively cheap price against Carter Hart and the Flyers. Hart looked somewhat improved in his return to the lineup on Saturday against the Islanders, but New York didn't test him much. I trust the 22-year-old about as far as I can throw him right now, especially against a Boston team that's scored 20 goals on him over four meetings this season.
Pick: Bruins (-125)
Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, despises how the NHL handles starting goalie announcements, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.