NHL weekend betting preview: Back the Leafs in Campbell's return
We were sitting pretty at over 20 units of profit on the season a few weeks ago, but that's been ground down amid this bad run. We're now at 82-75 (+6.32 units), but the ups and downs are all a part of it.
We'll go on another heater soon, and there's no better time than the present.
Rangers (+120) @ Capitals (-140)
March 19, 7 p.m. ET
Don't look now, but the Rangers are catching fire. They've taken five out of a possible six points over the past three games since Artemi Panarin returned to the lineup, and they've outscored their opposition 17-5 in those contests.
Additionally, Mika Zibanejad has finally busted out of his slump. Zibanejad had three goals and three assists in the second period Wednesday after recording just three goals and eight assists in his first 27 games. With Panarin back and Zibanejad cooking again, this a dangerous club.
However, the Capitals are perhaps the league's hottest team, winning six in a row and 10 of their last 11. Their underlying metrics have been strong over that span but not enough to lose just once. Luck has been on their side, and while Washington looks like a force, regression is on the horizon.
Overall, this is a steep price to pay against a full-strength Rangers team, especially with Lars Eller's injury leaving the Capitals thin down the middle.
Pick: Rangers (+120)
Flames (+135) @ Maple Leafs (-155)
March 20, 7 p.m.
I lean toward the Flames at this price for their matchup against the Leafs on Friday, but I'm staying away there. I'd much rather get involved Saturday, where it's all but certain we'll get a goaltending matchup between David Rittich and Jack Campbell. That's a big win for Toronto.
Campbell has hardly played this season due to injury. However, he's posted impressive numbers with a 4.8 GSAx - the fifth-best mark in the league - and a 3.21 GSAA over just three games.
The Flames counter with Rittich, who's a massive downgrade from Jacob Markstrom. Rittich caught lightning in a bottle in a pair of starts against the Leafs in February, but those were clear outliers. His GSAx sits at minus-4.86 during his four starts since.
Combine Toronto's significant advantage in goal with its strong edge on five-on-five and special teams and the Leafs are well worth paying for at this price.
Pick: Leafs (-155)
Jets (+120) @ Oilers (-140)
March 20, 10 p.m.
The Jets were up against it Thursday in a 2-1 loss to the Oilers, having to fly to Edmonton late after playing an overtime game the night before in Winnipeg. Despite the tough spot, the Jets put in a strong effort, controlling 59.14% of the expected goal share. But Connor McDavid had other plans. The Oilers captain scored a pair and Edmonton held on for an important two points.
That presents us with a nice opportunity to get in on Winnipeg on Saturday at a generous price. The Jets have only lost consecutive games once this season and Connor Hellebuyck will be back in goal after getting a rest Thursday.
I'm still much lower on the Oilers than the rest of the market - they're .500 when you take out their seven wins over the Senators - and Winnipeg has been a much better five-on-five team over the past few weeks. I'll gladly take the better club with the better goalie at plus-money in Saturday's rematch.
Pick: Jets (+120)
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, despises how the NHL handles starting goalie announcements, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.