NHL Saturday betting preview: Why you shouldn't give up on the Stars
It would be so cool if the teams we bet could stop blowing three-goal leads in the third period and losing in overtime. We can officially add the Blue Jackets to the list of disgusting beats we've suffered following Thursday's debacle.
We're sitting at 77-66 (+10.21 units) on the season heading into Friday night. Here's what I've got so far:
Stars (-110) @ Blue Jackets (-110)
I can't believe how quick people have been to completely give up on the Stars. So many have written this season off as unsalvageable, going so far as to say the roster is in need of a rebuild. I had a Stars fan tell me yesterday - and I quote - Jamie Benn is the worst captain in the league.
First of all, Benn is an incredible teammate, leader, and captain - one of the best in the league, in fact. How anyone - Stars fan or not - could call this guy a bad captain is embarrassing.
He's pulled this team out of the mud before - I'm looking at you, Jim Lites - and he will do it again. But the thing is, they aren't even in the mud right now. This team dealt with COVID-19 issues early in the season, postponements stemming from statewide power outages and food/water shortages, and an ongoing cycle of injuries. Benn, Alex Radulov, Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson, and Joel Kiviranta have all missed significant time, while Tyler Seguin and Ben Bishop have yet to play.
The Stars sit at 8-9-5 as a result, but have played much better than their record suggests. They sit seventh in the league in expected goal share at five-on-five (53.43%) - ahead of the Lightning, Hurricanes, and many others - and eighth in CF%. They're also above average on special teams. Dallas is playing good hockey while being plagued by miserable luck.
On Thursday the Stars were outshooting the Blackhawks 21-8 at one point, yet trailing 4-0, in what was the perfect microcosm of how things have gone for this team of late. They've controlled nearly 60% of the expected goal share over their last six games and have just two wins to show for it. Anton Khudobin's struggles have been a big part of that, but the Stars have a perfectly capable replacement with Jake Oettinger - their 2017 first-round pick - primed to take over the starting role. It's only a matter of time before they're rewarded with positive results.
It should start as early as Saturday - a game Oettinger and his strong 2.71 GSAA will likely start - against a Blue Jackets team in a tailspin. It's pretty clear John Tortorella's voice is being drowned out by the players, and you'd have to imagine changes are coming. Patrik Laine's puzzling benching on Thursday was the latest in a series of unfortunate events for this team, which just can't seem to get anything going.
It's not just that the Jackets are losing, but how they're losing. They're 30th in the NHL this season in expected goal share (45.67%) at five-on-five and sit bottom seven in both PP% and PK%. They are dead last in the NHL in expected goals for per 60 minutes with a mark of 2.09. The Red Wings are 30th with 2.35 xGF/60.
Add in Joonas Korpisalo's struggles, and it looks as though things are going to get much worse for the Jackets before they get better. Meanwhile, Dallas could also get Radulov back for this game. Radulov has 11 points in eight games this season but hasn't played since Feb. 4, and his return would be a massive boost for a team finally getting healthy.
Pick: Stars (-110)
Canadiens (+100) @ Flames (-120)
The Canadiens were in as bad a spot as you'll see in pro sports on Thursday. They played at 11 p.m. ET in Vancouver on Wednesday night, then had to fly out to Calgary for a game 19 hours later against a Flames team that had been off since Sunday. That's essentially a scheduling loss for the Habs, who still kept things close.
They will be in much better shape for Saturday's rematch, and are a bargain at plus money. The Canadiens lead the NHL in five-on-five expected goal share with an impressive 57.09%, and while they were being undone by a pair of miserable special teams units, they've vastly improved in that regard under Ducharme. Since the coaching change, they're converting at a 33.33% rate on the power play - which would be the best mark in the league - and 82.6% on the penalty kill. Combine that with typically stout five-on-five play and Carey Price rediscovering his form, and there's excellent value here with Montreal.
The Flames are going to be a better, more cohesive team under Darryl Sutter, but it's not going to happen overnight. Throw Thursday's game out the window and we can feel quite comfortable betting Montreal at this number.
Pick: Canadiens (+100)
Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, despises how the NHL handles starting goalie announcements, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.