NHL Thursday betting preview: Back the Flyers, Blue Jackets on home ice
Our streak of eight overtime losses in a row - including six in four days!! - came to an end Tuesday thanks to the Hurricanes. Hopefully, that Jordan Staal goal will trigger a 180 in the luck department.
We're sitting at 77-63 (+13.71 units) on the season heading into Thursday night. Here's what I've got so far, but as always, pay attention to Twitter for any adds.
Capitals (-110) @ Flyers (-110)
Winners of six of their last seven, the Capitals are coming in hot, while the Flyers are reeling a bit after losing three of their previous five, with just one regulation win. But Philadelphia has played much better despite the results not going its way, controlling a terrific 57.89% of the expected goal share at five-on-five over the last seven contests.
A big part of the Flyers' struggles has been the play of Carter Hart, who simply can't find his game. The difference between him and Brian Elliott has been massive for this team, and we're getting an Elliott start tonight, which is a big part of the reasoning behind this play. Hart started the 3-1 loss to the Capitals on Sunday, and Washington feels a bit overvalued here because of it, especially with Tom Wilson still suspended.
Pick: Flyers (-110)
Panthers (-140) @ Blue Jackets (+120)
It's hard to find many positives surrounding the Blue Jackets right now, who have lost seven of their last nine and have scored just 11 goals in their previous seven games. However, much like the Flyers, they've been playing a lot better. They're top 10 in expected goal share at five-on-five over their last seven contests and owned a 53% or greater share in five of those games.
A big part of the issue for Columbus has been in net. Since Elvis Merzlikins got hurt, Joonas Korpisalo has started eight straight games. Over that span, the Blue Jackets allowed just 2.31 xGA/60, the fifth-best mark in the league, but are allowing 3.03 GA/60. Korpisalo has struggled, with his minus-7.7 GSAA and minus-11.67 GSAx, ranking 66th and 68th out of 71 goalies this season. Merzlikins is a significant upgrade in both regards.
As for the Panthers, their goaltending situation is much shakier. Chris Driedger is cooling a bit after his hot start, and while Sergei Bobrovsky has been a bit better of late, he still hardly inspires confidence. The underlying numbers have been strong for this team, but I'm reluctant to buy in. There's a lot to like up-front when you look at this roster, but their blue line really isn't all that good. I have a hard time believing this defense can sustain the level they're playing at, and that's especially concerning with a shaky goaltending situation backing them up. The Blue Jackets are good value here in a revenge spot on home ice in Merzlikins' return to the crease.
Pick: Blue Jackets (+120)
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, despises how the NHL handles starting goalie announcements, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.