Buyer beware: 5 UFAs who could be overpaid this offseason
The NHL's signing season is fast approaching. With a flat salary cap hindering teams across the league, it's imperative general managers don't overspend and create further financial complications for their respective clubs.
If executives are looking to escape the frenzy without forking over contracts they'll regret down the road, they'd be wise to avoid these five pending unrestricted free agents:
1. Chris Tanev
Position: D
2019-20 points: 20
2019-20 cap hit: $4.45M
Tanev is the type of hard-nosed, stay-at-home defender many general managers covet and hope to deploy for 20 minutes a game. He's also one the most serviceable options in a minuscule group of right-handed blue-liners available this offseason.
There's plenty to like about his modest style of play - he blocks shots, keeps it simple in his own end, and by all accounts has been a strong veteran voice for a young Vancouver Canucks roster. But teams should think twice about throwing too much cash in his direction.
Tanev will be 31 by the time the 2020-21 season begins, and he's likely looking for a raise in what very well could be his last chance to secure a long-term contract. With so many teams up against a flat cap, is it a second-pairing blue-liner with little offensive upside worth nearly $5 million a season?
He's also been injury-prone through much of his career and saw his underlying numbers crumble this past season; he posted a 43.76% expected goals rate. Giving this type of player too much term or money is a move general managers almost always come to regret.
2. Braden Holtby
Position: G
2019-20 Sv%: .897
2019-20 cap hit: $6.1M
It would be strange to see Holtby suit up for any team besides the Washington Capitals, but he's bound to hit free agency after authoring the worst statistical season of his career in a contract year. Though the 31-year-old is part of a stacked class of free-agent netminders, he should garner significant interest from goaltending-starved teams based on his NHL resume.
Teams should think twice about handing Holtby the starter's reins, though. Paying a veteran goalie is always risky, and it seems extremely unlikely he'll live up to a new big-ticket contract. Holtby's decline from his previous Vezina Trophy-winning form might have seemed rapid, but it's been bubbling under the surface for a few years.
Holtby has posted a .906 save percentage across 161 games since 2017-18 - a significantly lower clip than his .916 career average. His deterioration doesn't appear to be a product of luck, either: He's posted goals-saved-above-average marks of minus-8.36, 1.79, and minus-16.76 in the past three seasons.
3. Mike Hoffman
Position: LW
2019-20 points: 59
2019-20 cap hit: $5.187M
Hoffman is a premier offensive talent in this fall's class of free-agent forwards, but general managers must always be wary of giving big-money deals to players in their thirties.
Hoffman is undisputedly one of the purest goal-scorers in the NHL, and his lethal one-timer would be a boost to many teams' power-play units. That said, he's a fairly one-dimensional player, and top-six forwards need to be dependable at both ends of the ice if they're earning upward of $6 million per season.
As illustrated above, Hoffman's impact at five-on-five isn't as significant as his reputation suggests. He's a natural finisher, but he struggles to create chances if he's not paired with a strong center. Though Hoffman has brought value to the Florida Panthers' offense, he's a candidate to underperform in new surroundings if they aren't properly catered to his skill set.
He could be a perfect complementary weapon on the right team, but he shouldn't be paid like a superstar.
4. Travis Hamonic
Position: D
2019-20 points: 12
2019-20 cap hit: $3.857M
Much like Tanev, Hamonic should see his offseason stock boosted by the fact he's a right-handed blue-liner. The 30-year-old is unlikely to land an eye-popping deal, but interested suitors still need to be cautious about the term and dollars they're willing to commit.
Hamonic was limited to 50 games with the Calgary Flames this past season and didn't boast particularly impressive numbers in any area. Though he averaged more minutes of ice time (21:12) in 2019-20 than he did in each of his previous three campaigns, Hamonic's raw production decreased across the board. Calgary was also outscored 48-36 with him on the ice at five-on-five, and the Flames were sub-50% in shots, shot attempts, scoring chances, and expected goals across all his even-strength minutes.
If a team doesn't see through Hamonic's intangibles and pays him to be a difference-maker on the right side of the blue line, it could wind up being a costly mistake.
5. Anton Khudobin
Position: G
2019-20 Sv%: .930
2019-20 cap hit: $2.5M
At 34, Khudobin is the oldest player on this list, but he's coming off the best statistical campaign of his career. Khudobin led the NHL with a .930 save percentage in 30 regular-season starts in 2019-20, then unexpectedly carried the Dallas Stars to the Stanley Cup Final with Ben Bishop unavailable.
The Stars would love to keep their goaltending tandem intact, but Khudobin may have priced himself out of Dallas with his stellar postseason performance. Teams interested in mimicking the Stars' 1A-1B model in goal could offer Khudobin a big raise, and he might jump at the chance to cash in on what may be his final NHL contract.
As impressive as Khudobin was this past season, paying a career backup too much money in a flat-cap world is asking for trouble. It's also possible Dallas' defensive play was at least somewhat responsible for the Russian's career year. Khudobin posted a .906 save percentage in 90 appearances over four years before joining the Stars in 2018, failing to carve out a consistent role in the NHL.
This offseason features a deep goalie market, and while Khudobin may enter free agency with better stats than many of his peers, there are several younger, cheaper, and safer options for teams looking to reinforce themselves between the pipes.
(Stats source: Natural Stat Trick)