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We built on the momentum of our 8-2 record during Round 3 in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final, nailing the Dallas Stars (+140) in one of my favorite situational bets of the playoffs.
We'll look to get that win column into double digits in Game 2.
After all the misguided talk about how much better the big, bad Lightning are now, the Stars certainly didn't look out of place in Game 1. Dallas was the better team on Saturday night and fully deserved the victory.
Doubters will point to the Lightning's dominant third period and suggest they were unlucky, but that sort of discrepancy is expected when a club enters the final frame down two goals. The Stars did what any other team would do, but they did it better, largely limiting the Lightning's quality third-period chances and holding them to just 0.77 expected goals at five-on-five.
Stars netminder Anton Khudobin has picked the best time to get hot, but although he was excellent while saving 1.96 goals above expected and stopping 35 of 36 shots in Game 1, the quality of chances he faced left a lot to be desired from the Lightning's perspective. He made a couple of big saves to deny Alex Killorn and Zach Bogosian, but Dallas' defense protected him well otherwise, with the unit keeping Tampa's offense to the periphery.
With a dialed-in Khudobin the last line of defense behind a Stars team playing on top of its game, the Lightning will need to fight for every inch in this series. Goals will be scarce throughout, and Dallas will want it that way. The teams combined for just 3.18 expected goals at five-on-five in Game 1, and with Khudobin and Andrei Vasilevskiy in net, the under is an automatic bet.
Pick: Under 5 (+110)
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.