Play-in preview: Canadiens looking for major upset over Penguins
Despite having the seventh-best record in the entire league, the Pittsburgh Penguins find themselves in a series against the 24th overall Montreal Canadiens with a playoff berth at stake.
All signs point to the Penguins having the edge, but absolutely anything can happen in hockey, especially in a best-of-five series. Let's take a look at the upcoming matchup between these two teams.
Schedule
| Game | Date | Time (ET) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sat. Aug. 1 | 8 p.m. |
| 2 | Mon. Aug. 3 | 8 p.m. |
| 3 | Wed. Aug. 5 | 8 p.m. |
| 4* | Fri. Aug. 7 | TBD |
| 5* | Sat. Aug. 8 | TBD |
*If necessary
Tale of the tape
| Canadiens | Stat | Penguins |
|---|---|---|
| 31-31-9 | Record | 40-23-6 |
| 2.93 (19th) | Goals per game | 3.20 (10th) |
| 3.10 (T-19th) | Goals against | 2.84 (T-11th) |
| 17.7 (22nd) | Power play % | 19.9 (16th) |
| 78.7 (19th) | Penalty kill % | 82.1 (10th) |
| 54.43 (2nd) | 5-on-5 Corsi For % | 50.86 (11th) |
| 53.44 (2nd) | 5-on-5 SH % | 51.53 (8th) |
| 91.70 (17th) | 5-on-5 SV % | 91.54 (19th) |
Season series
The Canadiens dropped two out of three of their matchups with the Penguins this season, but things were actually pretty even between the two clubs. Montreal won 4-1 in the first meeting, lost 3-2 in overtime in the second, and lost 4-1 in the final match. Goaltender Carey Price started all three games, while Sidney Crosby missed two of them due to injury.
Montreal last matched up with Pittsburgh in the second round of the 2010 postseason. The Canadiens shocked the high-flying Penguins and defeated them in seven games.
Key players to watch
Carey Price
It's no surprise that all eyes will be on Price. For years, he's been the Canadiens' backbone. The Habs often only go as far as Price can take them. When he's at the top of his game, Montreal has shown that it is capable of winning in the playoffs.
Price's play hasn't been all that consistent over the past three seasons, but he's still shown flashes of brilliance. That inconsistency could be due to fatigue - since the beginning of the 2016-17 season, Price has started the fourth-most games in the league (232). He's also been tasked with backstopping a team that's prone to defensive lapses. The four months of rest the 32-year-old received during the season's hiatus could just be what he needed to regain his MVP form.
Sidney Crosby
It also comes as no surprise that Crosby will be the No. 1 player to watch from Pittsburgh. He missed a handful of games due to injury this season but should enter the play-in round fully rested and ready to go. The captain's playoff resume is well-known as he sets out to pursue a fourth Stanley Cup.
In 40 career regular-season games against the Canadiens, Crosby recorded 19 goals and 52 points. Since 2008-09, the Penguins star ranks first in the league in playoff points (154) and points per game (1.11) among players with at least 90 games played. It's hard to believe that Crosby will turn 33 in August, but his play has yet to show any sort of meaningful decline - which means we should see a vintage performance from the star.
Canadiens can win if ...
The Canadiens face the tough task of slowing down the Penguins' lethal top six. With Crosby and Evgeni Malkin down the middle, Montreal needs to find a way to neutralize the pair of superstars and the skilled players that surround them.
A lot of things have to go right for Montreal to take this series. The Canadiens are usually able to muster up some goals, but they're often buried by their poor play on defense and special teams. Price can only do so much, and the players in front of him will need to step up to limit the Penguins' chances.
Penguins can win if ...
Despite battling through injuries to key players all season long, the Penguins still managed to finish near the top of the league in goals per game. One thing that didn't click as usual for Pittsburgh was its power play, which finished 16th in the league. Over the past three seasons, Pittsburgh's power play was the third-best in the league, converting at a 23.8% rate.
If Pittsburgh can get its special teams back on track, it will do wonders. Montreal's penalty kill has been one of the worst in the league over the past three years, and it will be difficult for the Canadiens to suppress Pittsburgh's power play. The Penguins' man-advantage unit was missing the majority of its mainstays throughout the season. Now that they're expected to be mostly healthy, the power play has a good chance to rebound, which gives the Penguins a significant advantage.
X-factors
Phillip Danault
Danault is easily the Canadiens' most unheralded player. His point totals over the years may not match other No. 1 centers around the league, but what he brings on both sides of the puck is extremely valuable. As the team's top center, he will be tasked with containing either Crosby or Malkin for the majority of the time he's on the ice.
The Canadiens' top line consists of Tomas Tatar, Brendan Gallagher, and Danault, who rank first, second, and third in the league, respectively, in Corsi For percentage. That is largely due to Danault's elite defensive skills, and the stat is even more impressive considering that Danault begins 54.12% of his shifts in the defensive zone.
Whether the Canadiens can shut down the Penguins to some extent depends in significant part on Danault.
Jake Guentzel
Guentzel missed a good chunk of the season after undergoing shoulder surgery in December. Considering he hasn't played a hockey game in over six months, his game could have a bit of rust - but at this point, many players are in the same boat.
He is the Penguins' leading goal-scorer (60) over the past two regular seasons and the leading goal-scorer (24) in the playoffs over the past three seasons. If he can find his game quickly during the qualifying series, the Penguins will be that much harder to beat.