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With the 2019-20 campaign likely in the books, there's no time like the present for hockey bettors to take a way-too-early look at next season.
The exact salary cap isn't known for next season, but using the rise from 2018-19 to 2019-20 as a point of reference, we can probably expect something just shy of $85 million, which would be on the lower end of the range given by NHL deputy commissioner Bill Daly in March.
With that figure, we can point out some teams facing cap issues that are worth monitoring closely this offseason, as they could become clubs to fade in 2020-21.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Cap issues aside, the Leafs are usually a reliable fade. That's not a knock on the team itself, it's a comment on the brand. Much like the New York Yankees, Dallas Cowboys, and Los Angeles Lakers, sportsbooks are never going to be lacking for Leafs money. That results in inflated lines, with the public quick to bite.
If you had bet against the Leafs in every game in 2019-20, you would have come out ahead. The same goes for 2018-19. With the team keeping its hyped forward core intact, there's every reason to believe the same should be true in 2020-21.
Toronto's defensive issues should be amplified next season with Cody Ceci, Tyson Barrie, and Travis Dermott all impending free agents, while Ilya Mikheyev, Jason Spezza, and Frederik Gauthier also need new deals. With the Leafs being so tight up against the cap, they're likely going to lose at least a handful of these guys, and that's going to hurt this team's depth at both ends of the ice. While none of these names individually shift the needle, that actually helps our cause, as sportsbooks likely won't adjust despite the team getting worse.
Arizona Coyotes
With nearly $75 million invested in 17 players (including two goalies), the Coyotes will likely have under $10 million to re-sign restricted free agents Vinnie Hinostroza and Christian Fischer, leaving them with little money left to bring back, or find replacements for, unrestricted free agents Taylor Hall, Carl Soderberg, and Brad Richardson.
Arizona will have little to no flexibility to improve the roster and it's going to be hard for general manager John Chayka to get creative with Conor Garland and four of the team's top-five defensemen set to be free agents after next season. Playing in such a small market, the Coyotes weren't valued highly by oddsmakers to begin with, but the roster should more fairly reflect their value next season.
Chicago Blackhawks
It's going to be a messy offseason for the Blackhawks and GM Stan Bowman, who is no stranger to a cap crunch. Restricted free agents Dominik Kubalik, Drake Caggiula, and Dylan Strome are in line for considerable raises, while both of the team's goaltenders are impending free agents. With $74 million already tied up, the team will have just over $10 million to re-sign those three and get a pair of goalies under contract. That's not going to happen without Bowman shedding some serious salary.
But even if he magically finds a way to get rid of some low-impact guys and fit everyone else under the cap, there will be no money remaining to improve the roster. Without reinforcements, a ton of pressure will be on Strome and Alex DeBrincat, who have both had disconcertingly down seasons, as well as Chicago's ageing stars.
The Blackhawks are another popular team that often sees a bit of inflation with their odds, and given the predicament they find themselves in, we should be able to take advantage.
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.
