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Here's a look at whether fantasy hockey owners would be better off selecting Nashville Predators D P.K. Subban or his likely partner Roman Josi:
2015 Stats
| G | A | SOG | PPP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Subban | 6 | 45 | 176 | 24 |
| Josi | 14 | 47 | 198 | 24 |
The Case for Subban
The winner of the 2012-13 Norris Trophy as the NHL's top defenseman, Subban has finished inside the top-14 vote getters in every year since. He sat out 14 games due to injury last year, after having missed just one over his past four seasons. He enters 2016-17 at full health with no lingering concerns.
After registering 38 points in the lockout-shortened 2012-13 season, Subban has totaled 164 points over the past three seasons, with his 51 points in 68 games last season being the single-season low. Subban tallied at least 43 assists in each of the past three seasons. Even while playing a distribution role, he has racked up 1,082 shots on goal in 434 career games.
He was on an 82-game pace for a career-high 212 SOG last season. The move from the defense-first system of Montreal Canadiens head coach Michel Therrien to the more offense-friendly system of Pradators coach Peter Laviolette should also help.
Best-Case Scenario: Subban returns to the form of a top Norris contender. The offensive system in Nashville could allow him to push for 70 points, while playing a large share of his 5v5 and power-play time with the top forward line of C Ryan Johansen and Ws Filip Forsberg and James Neal. He's the next best bet after Ottawa Senators D Erik Karlsson to lead his position in points.
Worst-Case Scenario: With a near-perfect health history and a coaching system set up to his match his own talents, it's difficult to envision a scenario where Subban finishes as a complete bust. A crowded defensive corps in Nashville plush with top talents may cap his upside as he fights for ice time.
The Case for Josi
Josi has seen his point totals increase in each of the past four seasons, rising from a mere 16 points in his 52-game rookie season to 61 points in 81 games last year. He registered 198 SOG last season, just three shy of the career-high 201 he tallied the year prior. His 24 power-play points were a career high.
His ice time dropped last season to 25:29 per game, after he had averaged roughly 26:30 in each of the previous two seasons. He posted a rating of plus-15 in 2014-15, but the number dropped to minus-3 in 2015-16. A large portion of the blame can be placed on goaltender Pekka Rinne, whose save percentage was nine points below his career average.
Josi's development to this point has been met with increased playing time and better production. Still just 26, Josi is a full year younger than Subban.
Best-Case Scenario: Following his progression trend, the next step for Josi could be 70 points and upward of 210 shots on goal. An opportunity to play substantial power-play time could give him a shot for close to 30 power-play points. Josi has maintained a shooting percentage in the low to mid-70 for each of the past three seasons. A lucky spike would push him over 20 goals.
Worst-Case Scenario: Alternatively, Josi has never had a true bottoming out of his shooting percentage. His career-low success rate was a 5.2 in 2012-13. The addition of Subban and the progression of W Filip Forsberg could also lead to fewer shot opportunities. If D Ryan Ellis makes a big leap this season, Josi could be dropped from the top power-play unit.
Verdict
Despite annual improvement leading to Josi's 61 points last season, Subban still carries significantly more name value to the average hockey fan and fantasy owner. The two are widely expected to play the majority of their time together at both 5v5 and with the man advantage. Ds Mattias Ekholm and Ellis are expected to comprise the second unit in both situations.
With each of the two bolstering the other's production while capping it at the same time, Josi is likely the better target at a later draft position. It is conceivable for owners to end up with both players if willing to targets defensemen often in the early part of the draft.
